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Mobility transition, electric only cuts 500 thousand employees

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An approach to the decarbonisation of mobility based exclusively on electric vehicles could lead to the loss of half a million jobs in the EU, of which 70% (359,000 employed) in the period of only 5 years between 2030 and 2035. If, on the other hand, the If electrification were integrated with a blended technological approach that allows the use of renewable fuels, it would be possible to reduce CO2 emissions by 50% by 2030, while maintaining jobs and creating added value.
This is what is stated in a study that Clepa, the European Association of Automotive Suppliers, commissioned PwC Strategy & to evaluate the impact of three different policy scenarios relating to the Green Deal (in the period 2020-2040) on employment and added value among automotive suppliers in Europe.
While confirming the essential role of electrification in achieving the objectives of the Paris agreement, the study commissioned by Clepa highlights the occupational risks associated with the banning of heat engines, which today affect a vast industrial chain. A negative impact – underlines the research – which would only be partially offset by the new jobs (226,000) in the production of powertrains for electric vehicles.
For this evaluation, PwC Strategy & hypothesized three scenarios: one with a mixed technological approach, one (the current one) that envisages the electric vehicles of the Fit for 55 package and, finally, a scenario of radical acceleration of the adoption of electric vehicles. The scenarios foresee a market share for electric vehicles of over 50%, almost 80% and finally close to 100% by 2030 respectively.
Clepa recalls in this regard that the automotive manufacturing sector is responsible for over 5% of overall manufacturing employment in 13 EU Member States, with over 60% of these workers employed by vehicle suppliers. The study identified risks and opportunities in seven major automotive component manufacturing countries (Germany, Spain, France, Italy, Czech Republic, Poland and Romania). The study is also the first of its kind with a specific focus on the automotive supplier supply chain.
While automakers have a greater ability to divest or acquire assets to compensate for a loss of business in the traditional powertrain business, automotive suppliers may react with much less agility, as they are bound by long-term contracts with vehicle manufacturers.
In addition to global and well-capitalized industry leaders, the industry is made up of hundreds of specialist companies and SMEs with less access to capital to invest in transforming their business models. The study predicts that in the electric vehicle-only scenario, 70% of the impact on employment will be felt already in the period 2030-2035 and confirms that the opportunities for electric vehicles depend on the creation of a deep supply chain of the batteries of the ‘EU, the timing and probability of which are still uncertain. “The components supply chain today has a significant economic and occupational weight in Italy – underlined Marco Stella, vice president of Anfia and president of the Components Group of Anfia, the association that spread the study together with Clepa – considering that the products of this sector are exported and appreciated all over the world, the trade balance is positive for about 5.5 billion euros a year. The Italian and European supply chain is strongly integrated at international level, a characteristic of which the European approach to the decarbonisation of mobility must take into account, recalling the strategic importance of defending the competitiveness of the sector for the future of our industry and, ultimately, of our economies “.
Stella reiterated that “supporting component manufacturers in Italy in tackling the transition to zero-emission mobility also means understanding the current difficulties of around 30% of them, who are still focused on internal combustion engine technologies and, in general, of SMEs, which represent the majority of the sector, in taking on large investments within a few years “.

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Source From: Ansa

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