The world is on the brink of a food crisis. How a war in Ukraine could lead to global starvation

Record high world food prices could rise another 22% as a result of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Such forecasts were announced by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

The fighting has halted trade and is destroying future crops. 13.1 million people worldwide will go hungry next season under the worst-case scenario. The main thing – stop the war.

Russia and Ukraine are among the top five international exporters of grains and oilseeds. The war had already raised the price of wheat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange by 70%. FAO Director-General Qu Dunyu said supply disruptions are inevitable. “Possible disruptions in agricultural activities of these two major exporters of key commodities could seriously aggravate food security around the world.”

“Wheat and corn provide 27% of the world’s food!” Andriy Yarmak, an economist at the Investment Department of the Food and Agriculture Association of the United Nations (FAO), said.

Ukraine and Russia together export more 25% of all wheat in the world, which is a key commodity of food security on Earth. Now there is no export from Ukraine, and export from Russia has almost stopped due to problems with SWIFT and logistical risks, the expert notes.

Already, wheat prices have doubled and continue to rise. As a key supplier of corn to Europe and China, Ukraine grew its historically maximum crop last year – 42 million tons.

However, Ukraine’s main food-growing areas now border directly on Russia and Belarus, where hostilities continue. Also, if the war continues, our state will not be able to ship the contracted minimum of 6 million tons of wheat and 15 million tons of corn to world markets.

This will turn into a collapse on a planetary scale, experts predict. Already, nearly 283 million people in 81 countries are severely food insecure, and 45 million are on the verge of starvation.

“The main buyers of wheat are in the Middle East and North Africa, and for these countries the problem of food security is extremely sensitive,” said Anatoly Amelin, co-founder and director of economic programs at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future.

The war disrupted the sowing campaign, says Andriy Yarmak, an economist at the FAO Investment Department.

“In Ukraine, the sowing season in the south is already late, where the occupiers are destroying the fields with their tanks and killing civilians. In addition, it is very important to apply fertilizer now, but this is not happening either.”

Recently, the world’s largest fertilizer producer, Canada’s Nutrien Ltd, said Russia’s war in Ukraine could lead to prolonged disruptions in global supplies of potash and nitrogen fertilizers for crops.

Recently, the Cabinet of Ministers introduced a zero quota for the export of mineral fertilizers. This means, in essence, a ban on their export abroad, said Roman Leshchenko, Minister of Agrarian Policy. However, this is not enough for the country to continue to harvest powerful crops and be the breadwinner of the world. Now farms are provided with resources only 30-50%.

According to a survey of farmers, severe fuel problem. Also, farmers do not have enough seeds, spare parts for equipment, said Oleg Nivevsky, head of the Center for Food and Land Use Research at the Kiev School of Economics.

Due to expected crop shortages, exports from Ukraine and Russia are unlikely in the current market year. If the war were to end in the next few weeks, some exports would still be possible. In the worst case, if the war continues, the world will receive less than 60 million tons of wheat, 38 million tons of corn and 10.5 million tons of barley – there will be a collapse in exports, Nivevsky says.

“The number of people in the world who do not have access to the minimum set of calories will increase,” Andrei Yarmak, an economist at the FAO investment department, told Segodnya. “According to my rough estimates, this year by 800 million people, and possibly even 1 billion. This will completely destroy the strategic goal of the UN to eradicate global hunger. Keep in mind that I did not take into account the collapse in the GDP of all states against the backdrop of the Russian war against Ukraine!”

This means a sharp increase in infant mortality in poor countries and many deaths from starvation. It’s time for the world to stop the war in Ukraine!

“Today” also wrote what will happen to the sowing campaign in Ukraine and what products are already becoming scarce.