Will hit everyone’s pocket: how much Ukrainians lose because of the war

War is costly. Russia is losing because of the sanctions that Western countries have imposed on it, and Ukraine is losing from the constant shelling of enemy artillery and missile strikes. Russian troops are destroying oil depots and food warehouses, houses and schools, roads and bridges. The government calculates the total losses, which as of March 24 already ranged from 540 to 600 billion dollars.

Today, together with experts, they calculated how much an ordinary Ukrainian spends from the war, from whom the war did not take away his home or loved ones.

The stratification of society

When talking about losses in the budget, economy and infrastructure, experts often measure some theoretical factors that were included in the forecast for GDP growth or other macroeconomic indicators.

When they talk about the losses of ordinary people, it is difficult to come up with some average figure, because someone’s house burned down, their car was blown up and their family died, and someone simply lost their job. Agree, the losses of these two people differ by orders of magnitude. But in general, there are methods that help to estimate the average losses of citizens.

“In order to understand the cost of the war for every Ukrainian, you need to look at the dynamics of income, the level of poverty and the level of unemployment of the population. According to various estimates, in recent years, the real level of poverty in Ukraine has fluctuated between 30-50%. At least people lived below the poverty line 50% of the population,” says Maxim Oryshchak, an analyst at the Center for Exchange Technologies.

According to him, according to official surveys, 67.1% of Ukrainian households classify themselves as poor, and only 1% belong to the middle class. And to questions about income, which allows you to consider yourself a representative of the middle class, 71.3% answered that they need an amount of more than 22 thousand hryvnia. per month.

“We understand that a very small number of people had such incomes. And the living wage per person per month is set at UAH 2,393 (data as of January 1, 2022), and the minimum wage for the same period is UAH 6,500,” the expert says.

Income down, prices up

The expert says that so far the Ukrainians have not yet experienced all the consequences of the war. After all, the NBU is holding back the course, and the state is trying to pay all social benefits on time.

“Provided that the hryvnia is stable, inflation is still restrained, and people who stayed in the country receive their salaries and pensions on time, the loss of most of the population is up to 20% of their usual income,” says Maxim Oryshchak.

According to him, in January inflation was 10%, in February 10.7%, by the end of March we can expect another 10% jump, but this does not mean that we should consider a 30% loss.

“Everything very much depends on the consumer basket of the family. Buckwheat can be bought for 70 hryvnias per kilogram, or found for 40 hryvnias. A kilogram of potatoes can be found for 35 hryvnias, and for 10 hryvnias at the same time. “, says the expert.

Bread and other food products that have risen in price due to the cost of gasoline in the country is a new reality and people will simply have to change their taste preferences and live within their means like never before. That is, every Ukrainian will pay for the war with maximum savings not on the benefits of his family, but on food.

In general, the so-called middle class will suffer the most from the war. These people have the most to lose from any crisis.

“Wages in the country will not grow in the next few years at least. The biggest losses will be incurred by those who had an income above the average. It is they who will pay with the loss of income from business, the loss of income from their main job. will be,” Maxim Oryshchak sums up.

Previously, we wrote about how Ukrainian stores are building a business on blood, as well as about the areas in which a job boom is expected after the war.