Def: draft, 2022 GDP at 3.1%, the deficit confirmed at 5.6%

Public administration, at the start of the first course dedicated to ecological transition (ANSA)

The control room on the Def will be held at 3.30 pm between the premier, Mario Draghi and the majority heads of delegation. The meeting of the Council of Ministers should follow, hypothesized for now at 5 pm and which will then see a press conference by Prime Minister Draghi and Minister Franco.

Programmatic GDP growth set at 3.1% (from the previous 4.7%) and deficit confirmed at 5.6%: these are the numbers that appear in the draft of the Def, which ANSA has viewed. “Starting from an Istat estimate of real GDP growth in 2021 higher than expected in September in the Update of the Deef (Nadef), 6.6 percent against 6.0 percent – reads the draft of the document – trend forecast for 2022 drops to 2.9 per cent, from 4.7 per cent for Nadef, although the quarterly GDP profile in 2021 would have a carry-over effect of 2.3 per cent on this year “. In the following years there will be a progressive slowdown in the growth rate: GDP will reach 2.4% in 2023, 1.8% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025.

There are 19 bills linked to the next maneuver according to what is read in the draft of the Def. The list includes a delegation bill for “updating the reference age group of youth policies as well as measures for promoting the autonomy and emancipation of young people”. Other related measures include tax reform, competition, measures on the implementation of differentiated autonomy and the reorganization of the gaming sector.

The Def predicts a 0.5 percent contraction in Italian GDP in the first quarter of this year, “mainly attributable to a contraction in industry added value”. For the second quarter, “a moderate recovery in quarterly GDP growth is expected, mainly driven by services. However, it should be noted – reads the draft of the Document – that in the Istat survey of March the expectations of manufacturing companies on orders and production are clearly get worse, which signals downside risks for the second quarter. “

The resources available to guarantee new aid to the economy amount to approximately 5 billion. This can be seen from the numbers of the Def. Of the more than 9 billion of space in deficit, 4.5 have already been used to reduce the impact of increases in bills.

Debt that continues its reduction path in the coming years: in the programmatic scenario indicated in the draft of the Def, in fact, the debt is revised slightly upwards in 2021, to 150.8%, due to the revision of the nominal GDP carried out by Istat . For this year, it is expected to decrease by 4 points, to 146.8%, to fall to 145% in 2023, to 143.2% in 2024 and 141.2% in 2025.

The new decree with aid to the economy, to be finalized in April, will have an impact on GDP of 0.2 points in 2022 and 0.1 in 2023 and first of all it will restore the 4.5 billion used in the bill. It can be read in the draft of the Def which also indicates other “four orders of interventions” to which the remaining “5 billion” are to be allocated: containment of fuel and energy prices, increase in funds to “cover the increase in the prices of the works public “; increased sources “for credit guarantees”, other measures “to assist Ukrainian refugees and to alleviate the economic impact of the conflict on Italian companies”.

If Russia blocks oil and gas exports between now and the end of 2023, energy prices would rise with an impact on GDP of 0.8 percentage points in 2022 and 1.1 points in 2023. And employment would drop by 0.6 points this year and 0.7 in 2023. In a worst case scenario, that is, if there was a Russian stop to energy and Italy was unable to diversify supplies as planned, also considering “the share of gas consumption to be rationed”, the impact on GDP would be 2.3 points in 2022 and 1.9 in 2023. Employment would be 1.3 points lower this year and 1.2 in 2023 This is what the Government estimates in the Def.

Source: Ansa

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