The dollar rate went up again – what it will be by the end of September

The dollar continues the intrigue: for the second week in a row, its rate behaves the same – stability, a slight decline, and at the end of the week, growth. This Friday, too, the trend reversed: dollar has risen in price, though not by much. Segodnya figured out where the dollar rate will go by the end of September.

Our experts are Oleg Pendzin, a member of the Economic Discussion Club, Oleksandr Okhrimenko, President of the Ukrainian Analytical Center, and Maksim Oryshchak, an analyst at the Center for Exchange Technologies.

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What happened to the course in a week

After a stable exchange rate last weekend, the hryvnia in cash strengthened by 7 kopecks over Monday-Thursday, to UAH 26.73 / dollar on sale and to 26.54 on purchase. On Friday, the trend, like a week ago, changed: the dollar has already started to rise in price. So far, by 7 kopecks, reaching 26.80 UAH / dollar on sale and 26.60 in purchase. This is a penny less than it was a week ago.

The spread (the difference between the buying and selling rates) widened, from 17 to 20 kopecks, moreover, due to the purchase of currency, not the sale. That is, the interest of banks and exchangers in dollar cash has decreased.

The maximum rate at which it was possible to deposit a cash dollar is UAH 26.65 (5 kopecks cheaper than a week ago), the minimum rate at which you can buy a cash dollar is UAH 26.67 (also 5 kopecks cheaper than a week ago). Note that such a high purchase rate is observed in exchange offices that buy foreign currency. The declared low selling rate, as a rule, is virtual, at such a price there are no dollars available. The real selling rate starts at UAH 26.75 / dollar, while the buying rate is no higher than 26.60.

After the weekend, the National Bank first weakened the hryvnia by a penny, to UAH 26.71 / dollar, but since Thursday began to strengthen it, and noticeably: by Friday the rate reached UAH 26.53 / dollar (-14 kopecks per week). On Monday, September 27, the National Bank set the rate of UAH 26.64 / dollar, having weakened the hryvnia by 11 kopecks.

Analysis of the market situation

Oleg Pendzin noted that the Ministry of Finance’s auctions for the sale of securities have practically come to naught and do not affect the state of affairs in the foreign exchange market. But the exchange rate is not growing primarily because importers are passive, currency is mainly bought by suppliers of critical imports (fuel, spare parts) and non-residents.

The passiveness of importers, according to the expert, is explained by the difficult epidemiological situation and fears of tighter restrictions, which will limit the sale of imported goods. Therefore, it makes no sense to make significant purchases.

Non-residents continue to leave the Ukrainian government bonds, since the beginning of September the outflow amounted to UAH 4.2 billion, in August – UAH 7.6 billion. That is, they got rid of more than 10% of Ukrainian securities, and bought currency with the hryvnia proceeds.

Oleg Pendzin also claims that the Ministry of Finance does not fulfill plans to attract external borrowings through auctions for the sale of government bonds, hoping for IMF tranche of $ 750 million, which is due before the end of this year.

“I have big doubts that the IMF will give us this money, since Ukraine does not fulfill its obligations on economic indicators and reforming legislation,” says Oleg Pendzin. for the dollar. “

Alexander Okhrimenko is sure that the balance of supply and demand is still generally observed in the interbank foreign exchange market.

“Small situational fluctuations continue, the cash market follows the interbank market, but no more. It is worth paying attention to the increased control by the National Bank over the situation: the regulator is consistently buying a symbolic $ 5 million a day, as if showing that it is ready to buy more if the exchange rate the dollar will begin to fall to UAH 26.5 in order to prevent excessive strengthening of the hryvnia. This is a signal for those players who would like to make money on the speculative growth of the rate – nothing will come of it, “Oleksandr Okhrimenko said.

Maxim Oryshchak also agrees with him: in his opinion, currency speculators in our country are not yet ready to stake on the devaluation of the hryvnia, so there is no sharp demand for dollars, which affects its low and fairly stable exchange rate. But this does not mean that it will always be so.

“Among the risks for the hryvnia, we consider the cheap value of the dollar, since the trend has not changed since the beginning of the year. This factor can provoke conversions with the aim of medium-term retention of foreign currency,” said Maxim Oryshchak.

What to expect next week

On the whole, the opinions of experts coincide: one should not expect significant shocks in the exchange rate until the end of this month.

Oleg Pendzin predicts that the so-called sideways trend of the rate, that is, insignificant up and down fluctuations, will continue throughout the last week of September. But the hryvnia in cash will weaken by 5-7 kopecks. on sale, up to 26.8-26.85 UAH / dollar with a subsequent target in October at 27 UAH per dollar.

“The end of the month is coming soon and VAT refunds to exporters, which will restrain the supply of foreign currency on the market and will contribute to the weakening of the hryvnia. It should have already begun, but since there are not enough buyers of foreign currency, the National Bank manages to maintain a balance,” Oleg Pendzin explained.

Oleksandr Okhrimenko says that small fluctuations in the rate are possible, including with a change in the dollar trend to downtrend and again to ascending, but this does not mean that the time has come for the devaluation of the hryvnia.

“Neither a significant devaluation, nor a significant revaluation of the hryvnia is expected next week, we can say that stability is off scale. Fluctuations in the range of 5-7 kopecks will be, but no more,” Oleksandr Okhrimenko predicts.

Maxim Oryshchak confirmed his previous forecast: from September 27, the average cash dollar selling rate will fluctuate within the range of 26.6-27 hryvnia.

“For the second week in a row, we do not change our forecast, since all factors give us an understanding of the stability of the country’s foreign exchange market. We have taken into account the monetary policy of Ukraine, with an increase in the rate to 8.5%, and the situation around gas risks in Europe, which increases the risks of inflation all over the world, replenishment of the budget of Ukraine at the expense of a tax amnesty, a fall in world stock indices, “argued Maksim Oryshchak.

Sell ​​or buy currency

Oleksandr Okhrimenko is still confident in a stable hryvnia not only until the end of September, but also in October. Therefore, hryvnia deposits will still remain more profitable than foreign currency stash.

Other experts advise to gradually invest in a currency if its use is planned in the medium term – six months or more.

“So, already at the end of September, we know that the budget of Ukraine for 2022 was formed with an eye to the fact that the average selling rate of the US dollar is 28.6 hryvnia. This information in the media space can fuel the demand for foreign savings,” summed up Maxim Oryshchak.

The opinion of another financial analyst about what awaits the hryvnia this year, see the plot.