We tell whether the dollar will rein in the recent decision of the NBU and whether the demand for the currency will fall
What will happen to the dollar in the near future / Photo: Getty Images, Collage: Today
The National Bank released the dollar to save the hryvnia. Banks were allowed to sell the currency at a price they consider profitable. Previously, the exchange rate was not supposed to deviate from the official rate by more than 10%.
Since the beginning of the war, the NBU has set the value of the dollar at UAH 29.25. However, in non-bank exchange offices, American money has added almost 3 hryvnias in price over the past week. Now they ask for an average of 37 hryvnias per dollar.
Therefore, “Today” will tell you whether the dollar will rein in the recent decision of the NBU and whether the demand for the currency will fall
According to a member of the NBU Council Viktor Koziuk, the course is fixed in order to keep the economy of the state.
To date, the hryvnia exchange rate is fixed. This was a forced move, as it was perhaps the only possible nominal anchor for macroeconomic stability in an environment where the interest rate was losing its ability to influence economic decisions, and price shocks were becoming unpredictable, he said.
The market “twisted” the dollar
Together with a number of other financial restrictions, this helped calm the panic and contain the dollar. The Cabinet of Ministers has determined a list of critical import goods, for which legal entities were allowed to buy foreign currency.
Since it is impossible for the population to purchase non-cash currency in Ukraine, people were left with exchange offices and the black market, where the exchange rate was much higher than the official one.
On April 14, the NBU eased restrictions and allowed banks to sell cash to customers. However, institutions could raise the price of the dollar as much as possible. 10% of the fixed exchange rate. That is, not higher than UAH 32.18/USD. This is more profitable than in non-bank exchangers. However, there was simply nothing to buy. In addition, in exchangers, the purchase rate is more profitable than in banks. The whole market was concentrated there, which increased the price of the dollar to almost 37 hryvnias.
What will happen to the summer course?
Deputy Chairman of the Finance Committee of the Council Yaroslav Zheleznyak wrote in his telegram channel that the exchange rate will rise in the summer.
“This is the result of blocked exports and a lack of money, which is successfully covered by the emission of the National Bank. And there is no need to blame them here. Who else will cover the gap? They say today payments have not been made in a number of areas. There is no money even for this. It means that more will be printed soon. Therefore, the exchange rate of 40 UAH per dollar is only a matter of time” he wrote.
True, later he noted that the dollar for 40 UAH can be avoided, and The NBU is doing everything for this. For its part, the National Bank convinces that the exchange rate is growing due to the lack of currency. According to the head of the NBU Kirill Shevchenko this is “mainly” due to the speculative earnings of the population, the financing of gray imports and the transfer of savings into foreign currency.
Speculative earnings consisted in the fact that enterprising citizens opened bank accounts, replenished them for UAH 100,000 and went abroad. They took money from ATMs there. The course was beneficial for them due to the rules prohibiting Ukrainian banks from raising the price of the currency over 10% from the official exchange rate of the NBU.
Further loaded with currency “merchants” returned home. The currency was sold on the black market already at the highest rate. This earned 3-4 hryvnia per dollar / euro.
There are no prerequisites for the growth of the value of the currency
As the executive director of the Center for Economic Strategies noted Gleb Vyshlinsky in the comments “Today”, there are no clear prerequisites for an increase in demand for the dollar, and the situation is similar to a speculative overclocking of the dollar, and not the real state of affairs.
From time to time, speculators create an artificial demand for the dollar, trying to earn in the future, he said.
In order to reduce the difference between the rates in banks and exchange offices, on May 20, the NBU lifted restrictions for banks on markups. at least 10% from the official rate. This is how a competitive market will work, financiers note:
Removal of restrictions will improve the working conditions of legal market entities. This will increase competition, increase the liquidity of the legal segment and reduce the volume of illegal transactions. All this will make the foreign exchange market more stable and will help reduce the amplitude of exchange rate fluctuations in the cash segment, – said the deputy head of the NBU Yuri Gelety.
The Center for Economic Strategy predicts that in the coming weeks it can be expected that the rate will roll back, and speculation will stop. At the same time, from a fixed official rate of 29.25 UAH / USD. NBU does not refuse.
And as Oleg Pendzin, executive director of the Economic Discussion Club, said in a commentary to Today, however, for the financial market itself there will be no change:
The NBU has not canceled anything fundamental. And further on the correspondent account, the bank will not be able to back up the exchanger. And the interbank market will work only to support critical imports and only at the rate of 29 hryvnia 25 kopecks,” he said.
How to predict the future of the financial system?
Only the fulfillment of these points will be able to predict the future of the financial system of Ukraine (these, in fact, are three important conditions for the return of a floating exchange rate):
- stabilization of export earnings;
- reducing the uncertainty associated with hostilities;
- activation of the money market.
Previously, we talked about whether Ukraine has a chance to hold the dollar, and also wrote that the dollar, in spite of everything, set its sights on a new record.