The complexity of the current context leads to a downward revision of the 2022 growth estimates for the Italian manufacturing industry, towards a + 1.5% trend increase in deflated turnover, from the + 4.9% estimated in October 2021. This is what emerges from 101 / o industrial sector analysis report, by Prometeia and Intesa Sanpaolo.
At current prices, on the other hand, the estimate is revised upwards, towards a growth rate of + 17.9% on a trend basis, from the + 6.9% estimated in October, as an effect of the strong increases in procurement costs which, although gradually fading over the course of the year, they will remain at high levels compared to the pre-conflict phase in Ukraine. For 2022, therefore, a decline in the average manufacturing margin is expected, towards an Ebitda margin of 8.8%, from the 9.1% estimated for 2021.
During 2021, the Italian manufacturing industry experienced a phase of intense recovery that led it to significantly exceed pre-Covid levels: turnover marked + 5.4% on 2019 at constant prices and +11 , 2% at current prices which, supported by the inflationary pressure generated by the first rally of commodities, especially non-energy ones, led to the exceeding of the record threshold of 1,000 billion euros.
“We have a picture full of very strong uncertainties, and not only linked exclusively to the tragedy of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia”, said Gregorio De Felice, chief economist of Intesa Sanpaolo. “There are many uncertainties – he adds – that lead the world economy towards a slowdown, with risks of recession”.
Source: Ansa
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