June will turn the currency market – what will happen to the dollar very soon

In Ukraine, in the next week, from June 6 to June 12, the selling rate of the US dollar will fluctuate within 29.35-35 hryvnia.

Such a forecast in an exclusive commentary “Today” was given by the analyst of the Center for Exchange Technologies Maxim Oryshchak.

According to him, there are several news that allow the exchange rate to stabilize in early June.

Firstly, it is permission from the NBU to sell the currency at any rate. Secondly, there was an unprecedented increase in the discount rate of the country’s financial regulator from 10% to 25%.

“At the same time, the war does not end and the demand for currency cannot yet grow due to low incomes of the population. In addition, when it turns out that it is possible to convert currency into hryvnia only at the official rate, which is unprofitable for currency holders, the system is developing more actively. netting among the population,” the expert explains.

What does this mean?

This will lead to the fact that in the coming weeks will be in demand development of communication among private “changers”as it was always near the markets in many cities.

The exchange rate of the national currency is stabilizing, but does not promise strengthening.

Oryshchak emphasizes that the risk of the country’s default and the fall of the banking sector is as close as possible these days.

“This will restrain the population’s demand for deposits in the national currency, despite the existence of a law on 100% guarantee of the return of funds on deposits,” the analyst says.

What can the NBU do?

Already now there is a deficit of the country’s budget, martial law is maintained, new foreign loans are received irregularly.

Therefore, if we think about whether the NBU will be able to support banks and whether they will attract more money into the system by raising the discount rate, then now it might not workOryshchak warned.

But it will still be possible to contain the outflow of deposits from banks. Deposit statistics are moderately optimistic.

Hryvnia funds of individuals increased over the quarter by 10.8%. The volume of fixed-term hryvnia deposits of individuals decreased in the first quarter by 7.5%.

But the share of new short-term deposits for up to 1 month in March rapidly increased to 31.8%. This means that people can be expected to convert medium-term deposits into short-termif there is even a slight increase in the rate of return.

Segodnya previously wrote what is happening with the dollar on the black market and told how investors were frightened by the situation in the United States.