Fuel market: Black Monday for motorists

The first Monday in October became “black” for motorists: prices for gasoline and diesel fuel quickly went up after a slight drop in price at the end of September. And liquefied gas is in no hurry to get cheaper, on the contrary, its creeping rise in price goes.

Why fuel is becoming more expensive again, what will happen to fuel prices by mid-October, our experts said: Director of the A-95 Consulting Group Sergey Kuyun, Deputy Director of the Psyche Scientific and Technical Center Gennady Ryabtsev and expert on the liquefied gas market Artem Kuyun.

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What has changed in a week

Yesterday, the Ministry of Economy published new recommended (in fact – directive) ceiling retail prices for fuel. They turned out to be higher than the previous ones: for gasoline by 33 kopecks / liter, for diesel fuel – by 64 kopecks / liter. Now the price of gasoline should not exceed 31.50 UAH / l, diesel fuel – 30.23 UAH / l. First a liter of diesel is more expensive than 30 hryvnia.

Recall: the government introduced price regulation for non-premium gasoline and diesel fuel in May this year during quarantine in order to prevent unreasonable price increases. The cost of premium fuel and autogas is not regulated.

Throughout the week, the cost of diesel fuel gradually increased in almost all areas in accordance with previous recommendations of the Ministry of Economy… Prices increased by 10-28 kopecks, and the record of the week was set by the Odessa region – an increase of 90 kopecks / liter at once! But in three regions, diesel has fallen in price due to an excess of supply: in Kirovograd – by 9 kopecks / l, in Dnepropetrovsk – by 29 kopecks / l, in Zaporozhye – by 58 kopecks / l. Yesterday, after the authorities allowed to raise prices further, there was a new spike in prices (see below for more details).

Gasoline, despite the fact that the Ministry of Economics recommended lowering prices for it, also rose in price all week in almost all regions, approaching the limits allowed by the ministry… In most regions, gasoline has risen in price by 6-15 kopecks / l, only in the Odessa region prices increased by 93 kopecks / l, being as close as possible to the recommended ones.

Prices were growing in chains of the middle and lower price segment, where they were noticeably below the limit. And premium chains selling at high prices lowered prices a week ago to the maximum allowed (for gasoline – UAH 31.17 / l). Only in three regions did gasoline prices fall noticeably: in Kherson – by 30 kopecks / l, in Kirovograd – by 49 kopecks / l, in Dnepropetrovsk – by 58 kopecks / l.

Yesterday, after the publication of new price caps from the Ministry of Economy, gasoline prices soared again to their maximums for premium chains and increased for several other chains in the middle and economy segment (see below for more details).

Autogas prices have been creeping up all week: prices have increased in most regions by 6-10 kopecks / liter. The biggest rise in price in the Lviv region is 20 kopecks / liter. Only in Kiev average prices fell by 3 kopecks / liter.

The highest prices, as before, are in two regions: Luhansk region and Kiev.

A-92, diesel fuel and autogas are the most expensive in the Luhansk region: A-92 costs UAH 30.32 / l, diesel fuel – 29.91, gas – UAH 18.13 / l. And gasoline A-95 – in the capital: 31.10 UAH / liter.

The lowest prices for gasoline are in the Sumy region: A-92 – 28.28 UAH / l, A-95 – 29.26 UAH / l, for diesel fuel – 27.98 UAH / l. Sumy region is the only region where diesel is still cheaper than 28 UAH / liter.

The cheapest gas in Kiev is UAH 17.34 / l.

The range of prices decreased for A-92 gasoline and diesel, and increased for A-95 and autogas. For A-92, the spread is 7.2% (2.04 UAH / l), it was 7.3%, for A-95 – 6.3% (1.84 UAH / l), it was 6%, for diesel – 6.9% (1.93 UAH / l), it was 7.2%, for gas – 4.6% (0.79 UAH / l), it was 4.4%.

What are the prices in all regions and how much they have changed over the week – see the infographics.

Prices for A-92

Average price in Ukraine – 29.17 UAH / l

Prices for A-95

Average price in Ukraine – 30.01 UAH / l

Diesel fuel prices

Average price in Ukraine – 28.70 UAH / l

LPG prices

Average price in Ukraine – 17.85 UAH / l

Analysis of the market situation

Experts say that the main impetus for the rise in prices in retail came from the latest calculations by the Ministry of Economy, published on October 4.

“If the prices rose smoothly for a week due to adjustments in those networks that did not immediately increase them, now gasoline has suddenly risen in price in the premium segment by 1%, diesel – by 2%,” Gennady Ryabtsev calculated. as oil has risen in price by $ 10 per barrel in a month, to almost $ 82, and this price has already reached the level of the fuel that has been produced from it. “

Sergei Kuyun specified which retail chains had already adjusted prices for gasoline and diesel fuel yesterday.

At WOG and OKKO, gasoline A-95 and A-92 rose in price by 33 kopecks / l and 50 kopecks / l, to 31.50 UAH / l and 30.99 UAH / l, respectively. Diesel fuel – by 64 kopecks / l, up to 30.23 UAH / l. In addition, diesel fuel has risen in price by 0.2-1 UAH / l in Marshal, Green Wave and Avantage 7 networks.

“For October 4, the average price of A-92 in Ukraine increased by 11 kopecks / l, up to 29.17 UAH / l, A-95 – by 7 kopecks / l, up to 30.01 UAH / l, the price of diesel fuel – up to UAH 28.70 / l (+14 kopecks / l) “, – stated Sergey Kuyun.

The expert also explained why gasoline prices were rising, not falling. For most retail chains, they are 1-1.5 UAH / liter lower than those recommended by the Ministry of Economy, primarily on the A-92. Therefore, traders began to raise them, taking into account more expensive purchases in the wholesale, so as not to lose earnings.

“Over the week, prices for small wholesale lots of diesel fuel increased by 44 kopecks / l (+ 1.74%), for gasoline – by 5-8 kopecks / l, or 0.24%. The cost of spot (today for tomorrow) contracts diesel fuel in Europe rose by $ 25-26 / t (more than 4%), gasoline – by $ 40 / t (6%). News from Europe continued to push the Ukrainian market up “, – analyzes Serhiy Kuyun.

Artem Kuyun explained why autogas prices continue to rise.

“After traders have stepped over the psychological cost barrier of 18 hryvnia per liter, prices continue to be adjusted for those chains that have not yet raised prices. Basically, these are discounter chains. Due to this, the average price in the regions increased by 6-10 kopecks. / L. But the difference between the chains reaches 1.5 UAH / liter: from 18.48 UAH in the premium segment to 17 UAH in the lower segment. “

What can change in a week

Sergei Kuyun and Gennady Ryabtsev expect that by the end of the week the prices for gasoline and diesel fuel will continue to rise in those networks that did not correct them on October 4.

“The potential is 50 kopecks per liter and more, both for gasoline and diesel,” Gennady Ryabtsev specified.

Sergei Kuyun added that the trend for the rise in prices for oil products is long-term, as oil has been steadily rising in price over the past three months. Therefore, refueling today with gasoline or diesel in reserve, you can save in the future.

Artem Kuyun says that the situation on the autogas market is now difficult to predict. There are no prerequisites for a rise in retail prices, since they are stable in wholesale. In the week, according to him, prices will not change, but in the second half of October a slight decrease is possible if cheap gas comes to Ukraine from the Russian Federation, which is now in surplus against the background of a decrease in consumption.

What other important events took place in Ukraine on October 4, see the plot.