Will there be no dollar below UAH 30? What to expect from the exchange rate Ukrainians

Since the beginning of the war, the cash exchange rate of the dollar has gone far enough beyond 30 hryvnia, and at peak times it even approached 40 hryvnia.

Segodnya learned from an expert whether Ukrainians will ever expect the dollar exchange rate at UAH 27-28.

Economist and financial analyst Alexei Kushch believes that it is still too early to talk about the stabilization of the situation.

But still, in the future, when the economy starts to recover, the hryvnia will strengthen too much will only harm Ukrainian exporters.

“This is not in the interests of the economy at the stage of recovery. Therefore, I do not think that any deep recovery revaluation is possible in Ukraine,” the expert notes.

According to the analyst, in the next six months, the current exchange rate may be added another 15% devaluation. In the fall, the course jumps up 40 UAH/USD Kushch considers absolutely real.

And subsequently, the hryvnia is unlikely to strengthen above 30 UAH / USD, according to the economist – this is almost impossible.

“Not only is this impossible, it is also not desirable. Because economic recovery is an increased demand for imports, primarily technological and investment. Plus, we will need to support our exporters, which requires a slight smooth devaluation,” Kusch explains. .

Rejection of the fixed rate

On the very first day of the full-scale war, the National Bank “froze” the official dollar exchange rate at 29.25 UAH/USD

However, already in early June, they started talking about a possible return to the floating rate, or at least “pulling” it a little closer to the market one.

Deputy head of the NBU Ekaterina Rozhkova said that the regulator plans to abandon course fixing hryvnia against the dollar, when import taxes, canceled in the first days of the war, will return.

Oleksiy Kushch also believes that the increase in the discount rate (from 10 to 25%) indicates that the National Bank is preparing for the liberalization of the interbank market and, accordingly, “pulling up” the interbank rate to the market one.

This decision seems wrong to the economist and the previous strategy was better.

“There are three main areas of regulation – the outflow of capital, the exchange rate and the discount rate. Of these three areas, only two can be done at the same time. All this time since the beginning of the war, the National Bank has been doing two things – fixing the exchange rate and blocking the outflow of capital,” the expert says.

Now the NBU has decided to do three things at the same time, which means that something will have to be abandoned, and most likely it will be fixed rate.

However, the so-called “exchange rate peaks” the National Bank will cut, the analyst is sure, but there will be no more rigid binding. It would be better to keep the course in one position at least until the end of the war.

Buy or sell?

Alexey Kushch recommends that Ukrainians keep a three-month supply for a family in hryvnias, but the surplus in excess of this amount – convert to dollars.

In the same time from some radical decisions it is better to refuse and buying all the savings in US currency is not worth it.

Earlier, Segodnya also wrote what is happening with the dollar in exchange offices and told what kind of replacement for the dollar and euro was found in Ukraine.