Frozen dollar began to hurt? When will the NBU release the exchange rate?

Ukraine continues to receive international assistance to help maintain the stability of the financial system. At the same time, our country’s reserves are not so large and they are constantly running out, and the fixed dollar rate is already starting to do more harm than good.

RoboForex analyst Andrey Goylov stated this. The expert told “Today” when the National Bank will unfreeze the official hryvnia exchange rate against the US dollar.

It all depends on taxes

On Thursday, June 9, Ukraine and the World Bank signed an agreement on the transfer to our state US$1.5 billion. This money will be used to pay employees of the public sector under the program “Support for public spending to ensure sustainable public administration in Ukraine.”

Goylov notes that this assistance will significant contribution to the stability of the financial system. Now our state budget deficit is $5 billion a month. At the same time, Ukraine’s own sources of income are insignificant compared to what international partners give us.

According to the State Statistics Service, consumer inflation in May reached 18% year on year. The expert says that the decision of the NBU to raise the discount rate to 25% per annum from 10% was very timely, because inflation will continue to grow.

Finally Goylov notes that the fixed-rate policy is starting to do more harm than good, especially against the backdrop of the fact that the reserves of our country are running out. Recall that the official dollar exchange rate in Ukraine has been fixed since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation at the level of UAH 29.25.

“In the near future, the National Bank may return the floating exchange rate of the hryvnia to the US dollar. It all depends on when the Cabinet of Ministers resumes the import tax,” the analyst said.

Goylov added that in the cash foreign exchange market, the hryvnia fell below the level of UAH 35.50 against the US dollar, while the euro weakened to the mark of UAH 37.50. According to him, the growth in the supply of US dollars and euros from commercial banks has a favorable effect on the exchange rate of the Ukrainian national currency.

Can we already talk about the stabilization of the exchange rate?

Earlier, “Today” talked with economist and financial analyst Alexei Kushch. He said that now it is too early to talk about the stabilization of the situation. At the same time, in the future, when the economy starts to recover, the hryvnia will strengthen too much will only harm Ukrainian exporters.

“This is not good for the economy at the stage of recovery. Therefore, I do not think that any deep recovery revaluation is possible in Ukraine,” the expert notes.

According to the analyst, the current rate in the next six months may be added another 15% – devaluation. In the fall, the price jump is expected to take place before 40 UAH/USD.

We also talked about what will happen to the cost of loans in Ukraine after the National Bank raised the discount rate to 25%, and also what is happening to the dollar on the black market.