Is the hryvnia doomed to fall? What could happen to the dollar soon

Since the beginning of martial law in Ukraine, the National Bank has fixed the official dollar exchange rate at UAH 29.25. He is expected to be released soon. However, some experts say that while this may have a negative impact on the hryvnia.

Anna Zolotko, director of the treasury operations department of Unex Bank, told UBR.ua in detail about when they should release the rate, and what consequences may be from a hasty decision.

Export Required

As the expert explained, the main condition for releasing the exchange rate and making it floating should be the resumption of exports in the country. And at least a partial one will suffice. However, this is currently not possible.

Due to a full-scale war with Russia, Ukrainian seaports, which are the main channel for our exports, are blocked. Therefore, we are not talking about export yet.

Zolotko noted that against the backdrop of such a situation, to release the course would mean the weakening of the hryvnia. The hryvnia may also be affected by the removal of restrictions on imports during the war. And the reason is that in the case of such decisions, imports will exceed exports in the country’s trade balance.

“Without the normalization of exports, completely free exchange rate formation and the removal of import restrictions dooms us to an inevitable increase in quotations. Moreover, in this case, the concept of a” free market “will also be rather arbitrary,” – said Zolotko.

The dollar may appreciate soon

As Maxim Orishchak, an analyst at the Center for Exchange Technologies (CBT), told Segodnya earlier, everyone expects that the NBU will soon release the dollar rate. And against the backdrop of this expectation currency on the black market can jump to higher values.

“Against the background of this news, in late June-early July, we can expect an increase in demand for dollars and euros from the population, which will push the exchange rate on the black market to 40 hryvnias. The expectation of an event for our population is a much more significant event than the actual decision-making” , Orishak explained.

The fact is that when we are waiting for a floating dollar exchange rate in the country, preparing for the devaluation of the hryvnia and rising prices for gasoline, gas and food, then we begin to buy foreign currency in order to somehow compensate for the future losses of our savings.

Together with an expert, we talked about where it is most profitable for Ukrainians to buy dollars, and what dollars exchangers refuse to accept.