While the grain “mice have not eaten”: why it is so important to break the naval blockade of Ukraine

Russia is waging not only a war with weapons against Ukraine, but is also trying to destroy our economy as much as possible. One of these methods was the naval blockade of the Black Sea ports. Ukraine is now “inundated” with grain so much that farmers are wondering where to store the new crop, and in the meantime, the world is threatened with starvation. Although exports by land transport are gradually increasing, without the deblockade of maritime trade, our farmers will not be able to sell their surplus crops.

“Today” together with experts dealt with the current situation.

Naval blockade

Ukraine cannot export in full the grain grown last year. The fault is the blocked ports of the Black Sea. The railroad cannot cope with such volumes.

According to the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, 22 million tons of grain are blocked in the ports. Now our country is negotiating with Western partners, the UN and Turkey to create opportunities for its export.

“We are interested in our farmers continuing to work for the next year and for the next harvest. For this, we need to export all this – barley, wheat, corn. 22 million tons are now blocked. We expect about 60 million tons in the fall There will be a really very difficult situation there,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

And here the president does not gather clouds – a new harvest is already on the way. If a solution is not found to unblock the ports, then next year the farmers will simply refuse to sow the fields.

This can threaten our country with an economic recession, and the world with famine. We are talking about tens of billions of dollars in losses of Ukrainian business. According to the Kyiv School of Economics, at the moment we can talk about the loss of 10-12 billion dollars from stolen crops, unharvested crops or crops that could be grown, but because of the war this is impossible.

The railroad fails

The only alternative to the ports now remains the railway. But the volume of transportation by this type of transport is several times less than by sea.

“With the required export volume for the agricultural industry of 5 million tons per month, today farmers have only 14% of their needs by rail,” said Roman Slasten, General Director of the Ukrainian Club of Agrarian Business (UCAB).

According to him, now rail transport plays a decisive role in the supply of food to other countries through Western borders and European ports. But without additional steps – opening new crossings or changing the approach – it is no longer possible to increase the throughput there.

The expert says that this leads to huge losses. Grain in wagons stands idle in queues for export for several months and begins to deteriorate.

In addition, rail logistics turns out to be significantly more expensive than sea logistics. The UCAB cites the following figures: if a year ago a farmer received $220-250 per ton for his grain, now it is half as much.

Grain has nowhere to go

Russian propagandists have recently dispersed rumors that the West wants to take grain out of Ukraine in order to provoke a famine in the country. In fact, Ukrainian farmers do not know where to store their surplus crops, and world hunger could begin precisely because of Russia’s actions.

According to UCAB analysts, now farmers are just trying to free warehouses from last year’s grain. Any methods are used: part of the crop will be transferred to shareholders in exchange for rent, part of the grain is planned to be placed in small storage facilities, and part is to be sold immediately in order to receive working capital.

However, if ports are not unblocked and exports do not increase, then next year farmers will simply refuse to sow, because seed, fuel, fertilizers and plant protection products are high costs with the risk of not returning them at the end of the year.

Farmers complain that the glut of the Ukrainian grain market has already caused price speculation within the country. Purchasing prices for the grain of the new harvest artificially fell by a third, while at the same time, due to a shortage of grain, prices in the world, on the contrary, are growing.

“The next season may be in big question if Ukraine does not increase export opportunities. While the process of exporting by alternative routes is complicated, and in the coming months new difficulties may arise, since the partner countries will still have their own crops, which they will also have to export,” – Roman Sweet.

According to experts, even if Western countries decide today to ensure the security of Ukrainian ports for the export of grain, it will take another three to four months to clear the mines in the Black Sea.

Earlier we wrote what prices will increase in Ukraine in July. Read about how the life of Ukrainians will change after joining the European Union.