Fuel market: auto gas price breaks records again, gasoline and diesel “just” rise in price

Fuel in Ukraine is becoming more and more expensive: after the prices for gasoline and diesel sharply jumped on black mondayOn October 4, the rise in prices for oil products continued throughout the past week. And liquefied gas updated price records – its average cost is rapidly approaching 19 hryvnia per liter.

Why the rise in fuel prices continues, what will happen to fuel prices further in October, our experts told: Director of the A-95 Consulting Group Sergei Kuyun, Director of the Psyche Scientific and Technical Center Sergei Sapegin and expert on the liquefied gas market Artem Kuyun.

What has changed in a week

Starting from October 4, fuel prices have been growing in all regions and in Kiev, approaching the maximum retail prices recommended by the Cabinet of Ministers – UAH 31.50 / l for gasoline, UAH 30.23 / l for diesel.

Let’s remind: regulation of prices for non-premium gasoline and diesel fuel the government introduced in May this year during the quarantine to prevent unreasonable price increases. The cost of premium fuel and autogas is not regulated.

Depending on the region, the rise in the price of gasoline was 6-19 kopecks / l, the rise in the price of diesel fuel was more noticeable – from 6 to 40 kopecks / l, in most regions – about 25 kopecks / l. The prices for diesel fuel increased the most in the Luhansk region (+58 kopecks / l).

Autogas prices rose even faster: on average across the country by 43 kopecks / liter, in most regions – from 46 to 50 kopecks / liter. The minimum growth – 34 kopecks / l – in the Transcarpathian and Chernivtsi regions.

The highest prices, as before, are in two regions: Luhansk region and Kiev.

A-92, diesel fuel and autogas are the most expensive in the Luhansk region: A-92 costs UAH 30.66 / l here, diesel fuel – UAH 30.49 / l, gas – UAH 18.59 / l. And the most expensive gasoline A-95 is in the capital: 31.22 UAH / liter.

The lowest prices for gasoline in the Sumy region: A-92 – 28.36 UAH / l, A-95 – 29.33 UAH / l, for diesel fuel – 28.09 UAH / l.

The cheapest gas in Kiev is UAH 17.74 / l. Only in the capital you can still refuel for less than UAH 18 per liter.

The range of prices has increased for all types of fuel. For A-92, the spread is 8.1% (2.30 UAH / l), it was 7.2%, for A-95 – 6.4% (1.89 UAH / l), it was 6.3%, diesel – 8.5% (2.40 UAH / l), it was 6.9%, for gas – 4.8% (0.85 UAH / l), it was 4.6%.

What are the prices in all regions – see the infographic.

Prices for A-92

The average price in Ukraine is 29.27 UAH / l (+16 kopecks)

Prices for A-95

The average price in Ukraine is 30.11 UAH / l (+10 kopecks)

Diesel fuel prices

The average price in Ukraine is 28.88 UAH / l (+26 kopecks)

LPG prices

The average price in Ukraine is 17.85 UAH / l (+43 kopecks)

Analysis of the market situation

Sergei Sapegin says that the growth in oil prices remains the main driver of fuel price growth: the most popular Brent brand already costs $ 83 / barrel. (+ 5.6% per week). The past week was the seventh in a row to show growth, and over the past three months, Brent added 13%. Since Ukraine imports about 80% of oil products, it is obvious that expensive oil directly, albeit with a delay of 3-4 weeks, required for production and logistics, affects fuel prices in our country.

Serhiy Kuyun noted that over the week, large wholesale of diesel engines grew by an average of UAH 1,140 / t – up to UAH 31,320 / t (+ 3.7%). Accordingly, small wholesale received a growth impulse of UAH 1. Prices for small wholesale lots of diesel fuel increased on average by 1.15 UAH / l (+ 4.4%), gasoline – by 82–94 kopecks / l (+ 3%).

“This was the market’s reaction to external quotes, which allow predicting a rise in retail prices by UAH 1 / l for gasoline and diesel fuel. As of October 11, prices continued to grow in some national and regional filling station networks,” the expert added.

In particular, in the network “BRSM-Nafta” by 40 kopecks / l, up to 27.80 hryvnias / l, the price of diesel fuel has risen. On Motto, too, only diesel fuel on average added 11 kopecks / l (28.08 UAH / l). “Quorum” increased prices for all types of fuel by 10 kopecks / l: gasoline A-92 rose to 29.50 UAH / l, A-95 – up to 30.35 UAH / l, diesel fuel – up to 28.75 UAH / l …

The Mango chain raised prices for all oil products by 20-30 kopecks / l. The Marshal chain operating mainly in the eastern and northern parts of the country has increased the price of gasoline and diesel fuel by 30 kopecks / liter.

In premium segment networks (WOG, OKKO, SOCAR, Parallel), prices for gasoline and diesel fuel remained stable, only autogas rose in price. At OKKO and Parallel it already costs UAH 18.99 / liter, this is a record, at WOG and SOCAR – 18.98, an increase of 50 kopecks per week. The cost of gas in the largest network of Privat Group increased on average by 43-50 kopecks / liter, to 17.60-17.68 UAH / liter. Shell and Avtoport raised prices by 36 and 30 kopecks per liter, to UAH 18.34 and 18.80 per liter, respectively.

According to Artem Kuyun, over October 9-11, the average price of liquefied gas at filling stations increased by 17 kopecks / liter and reached a record UAH 18.28 / liter.

“Against the backdrop of rising world prices since the beginning of July, liquefied gas in Ukraine has risen significantly. From July 1 to October 11, the average price in wholesale increased by UAH 4 / l, in retail – by UAH 2.91 / l,” said Artem Kuyun.

What can change in a week

In forming their forecasts, the experts noted that, firstly, the working week will be shorter by two days due to the feast of the Intercession of the Virgin (October 14 and 15), and secondly, it is not yet known whether, due to the additional two days off, published a day earlier, on October 13, fresh calculations of the Ministry of Economy on the recommended prices for gasoline and diesel fuel.

If the new prices are published, they will clearly be higher than the previous ones due to the rising oil prices. This will give an impetus to a further noticeable (within the hryvnia per liter) increase in price tags on gas station stelae from October 13-14. If new prices are published on Monday, October 18, prices will start to increase significantly from October 18. And by the end of this week, adjustments in the range of 20-30 kopecks / l are possible in individual networks.

“Since gasoline A-92 in the wholesale has risen in price by 64 kopecks / l, A-95 – by 59 kopecks / l, diesel fuel – by 1.05 UAH / l, then the networks of the middle and lower price segments, which fuel prices do not reach the current maximum prices, they can raise them “, – Sergei Sapegin predicts.

Sergei Kuyun believes that if there are no new recommendations from the Ministry of Economy this week, then a noticeable rise in prices in the middle and discount segment should not be expected for fear of losing customers.

But Artem Kuyun is sure that the rise in the price of autogas will definitely continue.

“The average cost of wholesale gas consignments for the week increased by 1,090 UAH / t or 3.5% and amounted to 31,240 UAH / t. The main factor behind the rise in prices is the high demand for petroleum products due to the high cost of natural gas,” the expert argued.

Artem Kuyun recalled that the psychological price barrier of UAH 18 / l was overcome back in September, prices in wholesale are growing, so retail will slowly follow wholesale. In premium chains, prices can stop around 19 UAH / l, in the rest – they will exceed 18 UAH / l (+ 40-50 kopecks / l).

The rise in the price of petroleum products may, even without the bans of the Cabinet of Ministers, push Ukrainians to buy electric cars instead of cars with an internal combustion engine. See the plot for more details.