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Maneuver: it will be race against time for the launch

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Naples, buffalo breeders pour 300 liters of milk under the Campania Region (ANSA)

The timing of the political elections will cross with those of public finance, for the fine-tuning of the budget maneuver. A stringent calendar that will in fact impose a race against time on the future government to avoid the ‘dead line’ of December 31st, when the provisional exercise starts according to the rules established by the Constitution.

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In practice, the non-approval of the budget maneuver by the end of the year triggers a sort of quota on expenses that are divided into four twelfths, in practice with a quarterly trap, thus limiting the disbursements.

But the process leading to the maneuver begins much earlier. The junction is the approval of the new macroeconomic forecasts – from GDP to deficit to debt – that the government inserts in Nadef, the update note of the Def which must be presented by 27 September. Since the times are such that there will not be a new government, it will be the Minister of Economy of the Draghi executive, Daniele Franco, who has developed the new forecasts which, obviously, cannot have a programmatic character, that is, they will not be able to take into account of the measures you intend to take. They will have to limit themselves to indicating – as they say technically – the ‘tendentials’ in current legislation. That is, the trend of the economy in the absence of interventions, but only on the basis of what has already been decided in the past. Then by 15 October a similar document with the estimates must be sent to the EU. Even in this case it will be difficult for there to be a new government.

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Then there is the deadline set for the launch of the maneuver: 20 October. But as recent years have shown, the date is not mandatory, no one – as it was said in the past during the long councils of night ministers – has ever stopped the clocks to meet the deadline. Indeed, often after approval, a long time passed before the final text arrived in the Chambers. But it is clear that the political alignments in the field for the elections must already have developed a draft budget, also because on some issues the lack of decisions would have a decisive impact. This is the case of pensions which, in the absence of new rules, sees the disappearance of the flexibility rules for exit now envisaged as quota 102.

Source: Ansa

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