Fuel market: what will stop the price flywheel

Height prices for petroleum products in Ukraine continues, although it has slowed down for gasoline and diesel fuel, and the cost of liquefied auto gas has hardly increased. A detailed analysis of the situation on the fuel market and forecasts of what will happen to fuel prices by the beginning of November were given by our experts: Director of the A-95 Consulting Group Sergey Kuyun, Deputy Director of the Psyche Scientific and Technical Center Gennady Ryabtsev and an expert on the liquefied gas Artem Kuyun.

: Fuel market: the price of autogas is breaking records again, gasoline and diesel are “just” getting more expensive

What has changed in a week

The Ministry of Economy has traditionally become the driver of price increases in Ukraine: on October 22, they published new maximum recommended prices for gasoline and diesel fuel. The cost of “ordinary” gasoline for its sale through the filling station network should not exceed 33.20 UAH / l (+0.63 UAH), for “ordinary” diesel fuel – 32.07 UAH / l (+0.72 UAH).

Recall: the government introduced price regulation for non-premium gasoline and diesel fuel in May this year during quarantine in order to prevent unreasonable price increases. The cost of premium fuel and autogas is not regulated.

In regions, prices increased unevenly: from 10 kopecks / l of gasoline in the Chernihiv region and 13-15 kopecks / l in a number of other regions, to 40-45 kopecks / l in Kiev, Kharkov, Transcarpathian, Poltava regions. Gasoline A-92 rose the most in Kiev (+74 kopecks, or up to 30.63 UAH / l), A-95 – in Lugansk (+55 kopecks, or up to 32.78 UAH / l).

Diesel fuel rose in price more significantly and more evenly: in most regions, prices increased by 40-60 kopecks / liter. The lowest prices for diesel fuel rose in the Dnipropetrovsk region: by 14 kopecks / liter, the most – in Kiev – by 71 kopecks / liter.

With prices for autogas, the picture turned out to be motley. In most regions, a liter of gas rose by 6-10 kopecks, in five regions – by 11-13 kopecks. The largest rise in prices was in Transcarpathia (+26 kopecks, or up to UAH 18.61 / l). In Donetsk and Ternopil regions, prices did not change, and in Kiev they even fell by 8 kopecks / liter.

The highest prices for gasoline and diesel fuel are now in the Luhansk region (a week ago the most expensive A-95 was in Kiev): A-92 – 32.01 UAH / l, A-95 – 32.78 UAH / l, diesel – 32, 11 UAH / l.

The lowest prices for gasoline and diesel fuel in the Sumy region: A-92 – 29.32 UAH / l, A-95 – 30.30 UAH / l, diesel fuel – 29.16 UAH / l.

The most expensive autogas in Donetsk region – 18.69 UAH / l, the cheapest in Kiev and Nikolaev region. – 18.27 UAH / l.

The range of prices decreased for A-92 and autogas, increased for A-95 and diesel fuel. For A-92, the spread is 7.7% (2.27 UAH / l), it was 8.3%, for A-95 – 8.2% (2.48 UAH / l), it was 7.2%, for diesel – 9.2% (2.69 UAH / l), it was 9%, for gas – 2.3% (0.42 UAH / l), it was 2.8%.

What are the prices in all regions – see the infographic.

Prices for A-92

The average price in Ukraine is 30.39 UAH / l (+30 kopecks)

Prices for A-95

The average price in Ukraine is 31.29 UAH / l (+33 kopecks)

Diesel fuel prices

The average price in Ukraine is 30.18 UAH / l (+40 kopecks)

LPG prices

The average price in Ukraine is 18.44 UAH / l (+9 kopecks)

Analysis of the market situation

Experts note that on October 23, immediately after the publication of the new recommended prices by the Ministry of Economy, retail chains of gas stations raised the prices for gasoline and diesel fuel.

“It has become a good tradition – as soon as the Cabinet of Ministers recommends raising the cost of fuel in retail, the next day the price tags at gas stations are rewritten,” Gennady Ryabtsev ironically says. more expensive, and this trend seems to be for a long time. Moreover, the growth rate of fuel prices in retail is now outstripping the growth rate of prices in wholesale. “

Sergei Kuyun added that the price of a barrel of the most popular Brent crude exceeded $ 86 (+ 1% per week), which is close to three-year highs. This year, oil prices have jumped 64%. Growth is accelerating on fears of shortages of natural gas and coal in Europe, India and China. Some power producers are switching from gas to fuel oil and diesel fuel, which has increased the demand for crude oil. Oil products in wholesale also continue to rise in price: over the week, wholesale prices for diesel fuel increased on average by 75 kopecks / l (+ 2.75%), gasoline – by 25 kopecks / l (+ 0.73%)

Sergei Kuyun also clarified how the retail prices for gasoline and diesel fuel have changed.

At WOG and OKKO gasoline A-92 rose in price by 50 kopecks / l, to 32.49 UAH / l, gasoline A-95 – by 63 kopecks / l, up to 33.20 UAH / l, and diesel fuel – by 72 kopecks ./l, up to 32.07 UAH / l. In the AMIC network, prices for gasoline and diesel fuel increased by 38-67 kopecks / liter, SOCAR increased the cost of gasoline by 0.63-1 UAH / liter, and Shell – by 60-72 kopecks / liter. Networks KLO, Parallel, UPG, Chipo and Avtotrans raised fuel prices within the range of 0.05-1 UAH / liter.

Artem Kuyun says that the wholesale prices of autogas have hardly changed over the week. On average, they are now about UAH 31,000 / t, or a little more than UAH 17 per liter without delivery and operating costs (about 2 more UAH / l). Retail prices rose slightly due to price adjustments in individual chains.

“The average retail price for the week increased by 9 kopecks / l, to UAH 18.44 / l,” the expert said.

What can change in a week

According to the forecast of Sergei Kuyun and Gennady Ryabtsev, retail prices for gasoline and diesel fuel should stabilize by the end of October.

The main reason is that the new recommended prices from the Ministry of Economy will be published no earlier than the beginning of November. Premium brands have already raised their prices to the maximum, so there can only be adjustments in individual networks, which for some reason have not changed the price tags yet. But already at the beginning of November another increase awaits us, since oil is constantly getting more expensive, and the calculations of the recommended prices from the Ministry of Economy depend on its cost.

The situation with autogas is more complicated. Although wholesale did not rise in price, Artem Kuyun recalled that for various reasons (decreased demand, surplus of stocks and high competition in the market), the previously accumulated potential for growth in retail prices has not been realized.

“So far there are no clear prerequisites for a serious rise in price, but the price may go up by 50 kopecks per liter, since the margin in retail is minimal. This happened due to the fact that against the background of the previous rise in prices in wholesale, retail stood. So the” gap “for half a hryvnia has the right to life, “says Artem Kuyun.

This means that in premium networks the gas price will go up to UAH 20 / l (19.50 and more), in the rest – it will exceed UAH 19 / l.

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