In Ukraine, in the period from March 20 to March 26, slight fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate are expected – 0.2-0.3 hryvnia. Despite this, in general, the cash rate will not cross the “borders” of 38-39 UAH.
German Marchenko, Director of the Treasury Department of Kominbank JSC, told GLOBAL HAPPENINGS about this. He noted that several factors provide exchange rate stability. In particular:
- systemic financial assistance from Western countries;
- invariability of the discount rate and the official exchange rate;
- gradual revival of economic activity recorded in the last 2 weeks.
“There is also reason to believe that the manufacturing industries will gradually gain momentum. There is hope that the economy will revive not only thanks to international support, but also by internal forces,” the banker said.
At the same time, he emphasized that positive changes can become tangible only with a certain time. Therefore, “we should not hope for too rapid dynamics during the war.”
What to expect
As Marchenko explained, in the period from March 20 to March 26, “moods” in the foreign exchange market will be formed by three factors. This:
- replenishment of the budget thanks to export agreements;
- insignificant – at the level of up to 1% per month – current inflation, “keeping a balance between prices and the purchasing power of the hryvnia”;
- psychological resilience of society.
Thus, he noted, during the specified period, the cash exchange rate of the dollar will remain within UAH 38-39 with minor fluctuations that will not affect the established exchange rate trends. At the same time, the difference between the rate of buying and selling currency in exchange offices will be up to 0.2 hryvnia per 1 dollar, which, according to the banker:
- is “an additional argument in favor of currency stability”;
- indicates the absence of speculation in the market.
However, he noted that while a significant percentage of budget expenditures are covered by international financial assistance, further strengthening of the hryvnia is unlikely. “However, one should not expect any reverse trends either,” Marchenko summed up.
As GLOBAL HAPPENINGS reported, as of the morning of March 19, Ukrainian banks set the cash dollar exchange rate at an average level of UAH 38.35/38.86 (buy/sell). The rate was at this level on March 18 as well. But on the black market, the value of the American currency has changed – but only for purchase: it has grown by 1 kopeck. up to UAH 38.75 The sale remained the same at the same level of 38.86 UAH.
Source: Obozrevatel
I am a journalist who writes about economics and business. I have worked in the news industry for over 5 years, most recently as an author at Global Happenings. My work has focused on covering the economy news, and I have written extensively on topics such as unemployment rates, housing prices, and the financial crisis. I am also an avid reader and have been known to write about books that interest me.
