Will there be a dollar at UAH 40 in Ukraine: analysts assessed the probability and named the timing

The dollar exchange rate in Ukraine in the coming weeks and probably throughout the spring will not return to the level of 40 UAH/USD, “ceiling” will be the rate of 39 UAH / USD. However, by the end of 2023, the situation may change significantly, and Ukrainians will again see “bucks” for 40 UAH or even more.

This is evidenced by the forecasts of a number of bankers and analysts of large organizations, writes GLOBAL HAPPENINGS. Yes, an important role in the foreign exchange market is now played by seasonal factor – in the spring, the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine traditionally decreases.

As the head of the analytical department of Concorde Capital, Alexander Parashchiy, explained, this trend is associated with the activities of farmers. They are actively selling last year’s harvest, and the currency received from exports is immediately “distilled” into the hryvnia – for purchases for the new sowing season. This increases the supply of “bucks” in the market, and, accordingly, has a positive effect on the Ukrainian currency.

According to bankers’ calculations, in April the dollar exchange rate will fluctuate within 37.8-39 UAH. This is evidenced by the “average” forecasts of Cominbank Treasury Department Director German Marchenko and OTP Bank Global Markets Department Dealer Anton Kurinny.

According to Kurin, mark 39 UAH/USD. can be broken due to a decrease in demand for deposits “for the purchase of currency.” Such a mechanism, at the peak of its popularity in the second half of 2022, stretched the demand for “bucks” in time, and the non-cash currency withdrawn from deposits entered the Ukrainian market after 3 months and increased the supply of the dollar, which led to the strengthening of the hryvnia.

“Since the beginning of the year, the foreign exchange market has acquired signs systemic stability. The heroic actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are also important, which do not allow the enemy to shake the Ukrainian resistance,” Marchenko explained his forecast.

However, according to experts from various organizations, the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine may reach UAH 45 by the end of 2023, but this is the most pessimistic forecast for the current year. If we take the average of all the estimates provided, the consensus forecast assumes at the end of the year, the exchange rate was 41.2 UAH/USD..

Analysts announced their forecasts during a discussion organized by the Center for Economic Strategy (CES). In general, they provided the following data:

  • Concorde Capital – they predict the dollar at UAH 36.6 at the end of the year, the most optimistic forecast;
  • Oxford Economics – UAH 39 / USD;
  • Dragon Capital – UAH 43/USD;
  • IER/GET – 42 UAH/USD;
  • Morgan Stanley – UAH 45 / USD, the most pessimistic forecast;
  • Sense Bank – UAH 43/USD;
  • ICU – UAH 40.2/USD

It’s interesting that to the state budget for the current year, the dollar exchange rate was set at the level 42.2 UAH. However, “budget” forecasts of the exchange rate are often not carried out, they, in fact, are not forecasts – this is only an indicator necessary for purely budgetary calculations.

It should be noted that in the forecasts we are talking about the cash exchange rate of the dollar, regulated by the market. The official dollar exchange rate in Ukraine remains fixed at UAH 36.56/USD.

As GLOBAL HAPPENINGS previously reported, the National Bank tied the abolition of the fixed rate not to a specific time, but to macroeconomic indicators. They intend to keep the dollar in the regulator until the situation on the foreign exchange market improves and inflation stabilizes.

Source: Obozrevatel

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