The Banque de France has revised its growth estimate for the first quarter of 2023 upwards, from 0.1 to 0.2%. Despite everything, the institution also reveals the impact of the mobilizations against the pension reform on the economy. Transport, energy, catering… Many sectors are affected.
France continues to grow. In any case, this is what the Banque de France forecasts, which anticipates growth of 0.2% in the first quarter of 2023. A forecast slightly raised compared to the beginning of the year, but which does not make us forget the cost of the strike against the pension reform, on the French economy.
To assess it, each month, the Banque de France publishes its economic report. To do so, it questions thousands of companies and this gives a set of quantified results that testify to the health of our economy.
Stronger growth in 2023?
In March, the Banque de France noted a decline in GDP of 0.3% and the weight of the strikes appears quite clearly at two levels. First, in the energy, water, waste and refining branches, it recorded a sharp drop minus 6.9%. In question: production cuts in hydraulic or nuclear power stations, the shutdown of LNG terminals by the unions or even blockages in refineries.
And then there is also the weight of the strike in shops, transport and accommodation / catering, which fell by nearly 1.4% in March. Transport has been largely impacted by social movements in recent months, the various days of mobilization against the government’s project have also weighed on the activity of shops in hotels and restaurants.
Despite the social situation, the Banque de France had already reported in March renewed optimism for the French economy in 2023, doubling its forecast for annual GDP growth to 0.6%. She had highlighted inflation (in particular energy) which would be weaker than expected for the year, as well as “higher growth in global demand”.
Source: Europe1
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