The official dollar exchange rate in Ukraine by the end of 2023 may reach 40.7 UAH/USD. This is 4.1 UAH higher than the current exchange rate, fixed at 36.6 UAH/USD.
This forecast was given by analysts of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in their April review. Despite the fact that the forecast rate turned out to be noticeably higher than the current one, it is still lower than the figure of 42.2 UAH/USD included in the state budget.. However, “budgetary” exchange rate forecasts in Ukraine do not often come true.
At the same time, the IMF believes that Ukraine will continue the fall of the economy. Fund analysts suggest that the real GDP of Ukraine in 2023 will fall by 3%. Inflation, according to their forecast, will slow to 20% after 26.6% in 2022, and unemployment will fall to 20.9% (from 24.5% in 2022).
The IMF did not predict the exchange rate of the cash dollar in Ukraine. As of April 12, the dollar in banks is sold at UAH 37.8, and bought at UAH 37.3. Other analysts have previously shown their own dollar exchange rate forecasts in Ukraine until the end of the year:
- Concorde Capital predicts the dollar at UAH 36.6 at the end of the year, this is the most optimistic forecast;
- Oxford Economics – UAH 39 / USD;
- Dragon Capital – UAH 43/USD;
- IER/GET – 42 UAH/USD;
- Morgan Stanley – UAH 45 / USD, the most pessimistic forecast;
- ICU – UAH 40.2/USD
As GLOBAL HAPPENINGS reported, the gap between the official and cash exchange rates of the dollar has already narrowed to a minimum in Ukraine. If in mid-2022 it was 28.5%, then at the end of March 2023 it was only 3.6%.
Source: Obozrevatel
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