Auto gas prices set a new record, whether to wait 20 hryvnia per liter

Good news for motorists: in Ukraine, the rise in gasoline prices has stopped, and diesel fuel has even dropped in price. More than a month both gasoline and diesel fuel rose in price, the price of gasoline A-95 exceeded 32 hryvnia per liter. But there is also bad news: autogas not only rose in price again, but once again broke the price record: now a liter of LPG costs almost 20 hryvnia! Let us remind you that a year ago it was only UAH 12.75 per liter, 35% cheaper. By the way, on November 9, 2020, a liter of A-95 gasoline cost UAH 24.20 (25% cheaper), a diesel fuel liter – 23.50 (23% cheaper).

A detailed analysis of the situation on the fuel market and forecasts of what will happen with fuel prices in November were given by our experts: analyst of the A-95 Consulting Group Igor Egozarov, director of the Psyche Scientific and Technical Center Sergey Sapegin and a market expert liquefied gas Artem Kuyun.

: Fuel market: what will happen to gasoline prices in the near future

What has changed in a week

The main news of the week was the transition of the maximum prices for autogas across the psychological threshold – 19 hryvnia per liter. Over the weekend, at gas stations of premium segment chains, prices reached UAH 19.50 / liter, in a number of other networks they exceeded UAH 19.

Also, the Ministry of Economy published new maximum recommended fuel prices… The cost of “ordinary” gasoline for its retail sale until November 13 should not exceed 33.40 UAH / l (+0.20 UAH), for “ordinary” diesel fuel – 31.90 UAH / l (-0.17 UAH).

Recall: the government introduced price regulation for non-premium gasoline and diesel fuel in May this year during quarantine in order to prevent unreasonable price increases. The cost of premium fuel and autogas is not regulated.

From 3 to 8 November, the prices for gasoline and diesel in premium segment networks changed to the maximum, where they correspond to the maximum recommended ones. In particular, at WOG and OKKO gasoline A-95 rose in price by 20 kopecks / l, up to 33.49 UAH / l. And diesel fuel has fallen in price by 17 kopecks / l, to 31.90 UAH / l. For other traders, where the prices do not reach the maximum, the prices have hardly changed. In the networks of the lower price segment, the recommendations of the Ministry of Economy were not “noticed” at all, especially when it comes to price reductions.

In the regions, A-95 gasoline has risen in price almost everywhere, but not much: on average by 2-10 kopecks / liter. The largest growth is in the Luhansk region – by 18 kopecks / liter. In Sumy and Poltava regions, prices have not changed.

Diesel has fallen in price almost everywhere, also not much – by 2-10 kopecks / liter. The largest price reduction in Poltava region – by 17 kopecks / liter. In the Sumy region, prices did not change, in the Kharkov, Volyn and Kherson regions they increased by 2-9 kopecks / liter.

A motley picture turned out for gasoline A-92: in eight regions – a decrease of 1-8 kopecks / l, in ten regions and in Kiev – an increase of 1-7 kopecks / l, in six regions prices remained stable.

The most expensive fuel (except for autogas) is now in the Luhansk region: A-92 – UAH 32.18 / l, A-95 – UAH 33.06 / l, diesel fuel – UAH 32.18 / l.

The lowest prices for gasoline and diesel fuel in the Sumy region: A-92 – 30.12 UAH / liter, A-95 – 31.10 UAH / liter, diesel fuel – 29.99 UAH / liter. Sumy region is the only region where prices have not changed over the week, and diesel can be refueled for less than 30 UAH / liter.

The most expensive car gas in the Donetsk region. – 18.85 UAH / l, the cheapest in the Nikolaev region. – 18.40 UAH / l.

The range of prices increased for gasoline and gas and decreased for diesel fuel. For A-92, the spread is 6.9% (2.06 UAH / l), it was 6.6%, for A-95 – 6.3% (1.94 UAH / l), it was 5.6%, diesel – 7.3% (2.19 UAH / l), it was 7.4%, for gas – 2.5% (0.45 UAH / l), it was 2.2%.

What are the prices in all regions – see the infographic.

Prices for A-92

The average price in Ukraine is 30.87 UAH / l (+1 kopeck)

Prices for A-95

The average price in Ukraine is 31.83 UAH / l (+5 kopecks)

Diesel fuel prices

The average price in Ukraine is 30.61 UAH / l (-5 kopecks)

LPG prices

The average price in Ukraine is 18.59 UAH / l (+13 kopecks)

Analysis of the market situation

Igor Egozarov explained why the rise in the price of gasoline turned out to be small, despite the recommendations of the Ministry of Economy, and did not occur in all networks.

“Oil is getting cheaper: in the first week of November, the most popular Brent brand fell in price by 3.5%, from 84 to 81 dollars per barrel,” the expert noted. which averaged $ 15 per ton (-2.2%) in large wholesale and 57 kopecks per liter (-2%) in small wholesale (from a fuel tanker) .This stabilized prices on the Ukrainian market and puts pressure on them downward “.

Sergei Sapegin added: first of all, we are talking about diesel fuel, significant reserves of which lead to a decrease in wholesale prices, which has already affected retail.

“The preconditions are being laid for a trend reversal from upward to downward in the near future: large wholesale does not grow, and small wholesale is slowly but steadily getting cheaper, even by a couple of kopecks,” analyzes Sergey Sapegin. “There are no problems with the resource, especially for diesel.”

Artem Kuyun said that the average retail price of liquefied gas on November 8 reached a record UAH 18.59 / l (+14 kopecks / l by November 5).

“The price of the resource in premium-segment networks also broke the record in the entire history of observation, – stated Artem Kuyun. – So, OKKO put 19.49 UAH / l (+50 kopecks / l) on the stele, WOG – 19.48 UAH / l (+50 kopecks / l), SOCAR raised prices for the product by 10 kopecks / l, to 19.08 UAH / l, and Parallel – by 30 kopecks / l, to 19.29 UAH / l. Avtotrans, Quorum and Motto have adjusted prices upward within the range of 5-15 kopecks / l. Meanwhile, despite the market conditions, Chipo and Mango chains have reduced prices by 3 and 8 kopecks / l. “

What can change in a week

Experts predict the stability of prices for gasoline and diesel fuel until the end of the week with the prospect of their decline.

“The season of significant fuel consumption is coming to an end, the autumn peak has passed,” says Sergei Sapegin. “Therefore, market factors promise a reduction in price. the consumer to pay according to those price indicators that are formed, firstly, in Europe, and secondly, speculatively.

But it seems that our market is beginning to live its own life, most traders set retail prices below the maximum recommended by the Ministry of Economy. Therefore, there will be no rise in gasoline prices until mid-November, and diesel fuel should fall in price. “

Igor Egozarov clarified that the new calculations of the Ministry of Economy, most likely, will be published no earlier than November 15 due to the weekend. Therefore, prices will remain stable until the end of this week, with the exception of minor adjustments in individual chains.

But Artem Kuyun promises a further rise in autogas prices.

“Despite the high competition in the market, the milestone of 19 hryvnia has been passed, – stated Artem Kuyun. – But since prices in the wholesale have grown, that is, the potential is another 50 kopecks / liter. Whether it will be realized by mid-November is still difficult to predict. But first, prices in mid-range and economy-segment chains will catch up with premium chains. There are almost no expectations for price reductions, and the likelihood of an increase is high. “

If the expert’s forecasts come true, the drivers will have to pay 20 hryvnia for a liter of autogas the other day.

Not only fuel prices worry Ukrainians, but also mandatory vaccination for those who work in offices, and other problems, including international ones. For more details, see the latest news release “Today”.