Prices for gasoline and diesel went down, how much will the fuel be by the end of November

Gasoline began to fall in price in Ukraine yesterday: a number of chains lowered prices by 22-35 kopecks / liter. This happened thanks to the publication of the Ministry of Economy new recommended prices for petroleum products… But the entire second week of November on the oil products market turned out to be “calm” – the average prices for gasoline and diesel fuel did not change.

The market, it seems, was waiting for fresh recommendations from the authorities on what the maximum retail prices for fuel should be and waited: on November 15, a “command” came in to reduce them.

But the price of autogas continued to rise, setting new price records.

A detailed analysis of the situation on the fuel market and forecasts of what will happen with fuel prices in November were given by our experts: analyst of the A-95 Consulting Group Igor Egozarov, Deputy Director of the Psyche Scientific and Technical Center Gennady Ryabtsev and a market expert liquefied gas Artem Kuyun.

: Fuel market: what will happen to gasoline prices in the near future

What has changed in a week

Yesterday the Ministry of Economy announced new maximum recommended prices for fuel. The cost of “ordinary” gasoline for its retail sale until November 25 should not exceed 33.18 UAH / l (-22 kopecks), for “ordinary” diesel fuel – 31.55 UAH / l (-35 kopecks). By the evening, only large brands (WOG, OKKO) reacted, their prices coinciding with the limit – their fuel prices fell to new maximum values. The prices of other chains have not changed on Monday, said Igor Egozarov.

Recall: the government introduced price regulation for non-premium gasoline and diesel fuel in May this year during quarantine in order to prevent unreasonable price increases. The cost of premium fuel and autogas is not regulated.

It is obvious that prices for gasoline and diesel fuel by regions have changed little over November 8-14. The largest rise in the price of gasoline and diesel fuel is in the Rivne region – 4 kopecks / l, the biggest drop in prices – in Ivano-Frankivsk – also 4 kopecks / l.

Autogas only grew in price – by an average of 16 kopecks / liter, in most regions – by 12-20 kopecks / liter. The largest rise in prices (+25 kopecks / l) was in the Nikolaev region, where gas was the cheapest, the smallest increase (+4 kopecks / l) was in Donetsk, where gas was the most expensive.

Now the most expensive gas in the Odessa region is 19 UAH / l (+17 kopecks / l). And in Nikolaevskaya gas remained the cheapest – 18.65 UAH / l. But now the price is the same in the Kherson region.

The most expensive fuel, except for autogas, in the Luhansk region: A-92 and diesel fuel – 32.18 UAH / l, A-95 – 33.06 UAH / l.

The lowest prices for gasoline and diesel fuel in the Sumy region: A-92 – 30.12 UAH / l, A-95 – 31.10 UAH / l, diesel fuel – 29.98 UAH / l (-1 kopecks / l). Sumy region is still the only region where diesel fuel can be refueled for less than 30 UAH / liter.

The range of prices did not change for gasoline and diesel fuel and decreased for gas. For A-92 the spread is 6.9% (2.06 UAH / l), for A-95 – 6.3% (1.94 UAH / l), for diesel – 7.3% (2.19 UAH / l), for gas – 1.9% (0.35 UAH / l), it was 2.5%.

What are the prices in all regions – see the infographic.

Prices for A-92

The average price in Ukraine is 30.87 UAH / l (0 kopecks)

Prices for A-95

The average price in Ukraine is 31.83 UAH / l (0 kopecks)

Diesel fuel prices

The average price in Ukraine is 30.61 UAH / l (0 kopecks)

LPG prices

The average price in Ukraine is 18.75 UAH / l (+16 kopecks)

Analysis of the market situation

Experts say that the stability of prices for gasoline and diesel fuel was expected: traders whose price tags on the steles are below the limit were in no hurry to reduce them against the background of the traditional pre-winter decrease in fuel demand.

Gennady Ryabtsev also noted that oil prices dropped slightly in the world, a barrel of the most popular Brent brand costs $ 82.30 (-0.69%).

“The current drop in oil prices is caused by the strengthening of the dollar, but in general the market is in a balanced situation, so you should not expect a drop in oil prices below $ 80 per barrel,” says Gennady Ryabtsev. “This means that oil products will not be as cheap as a year ago. “.

But liquefied gas continues to rise in price. According to Artem Kuyun, its average cost in large wholesale increased by UAH 230 / t, to UAH 31,880 / t (+ 0.7%). Retail prices have also increased.

During the week at OKKO and WOG, the cost of autogas increased by an average of 30 kopecks / liter, to 19.29 UAH / liter and 19.28 UAH / liter. Autogas at SOCAR stations went up in price by 50 kopecks / l, up to 19.48 hryvnias / l. The Privat chain increased prices by an average of 50 kopecks / liter, to UAH 18.18 / liter. At “BRSM-Nafta” and Motto gas prices increased by 30 and 20 kopecks / l, up to 18.90 to UAH / l and 18.85 UAH / l, respectively. KLO and Avantage 7 raised prices by 28 kopecks / liter and 50 kopecks / liter, up to 19.13 UAH / liter and 18.05 UAH / liter. A number of other chains have increased prices by 10-40 kopecks / liter.

What can change in a week

Experts predict a further decline in gasoline and diesel prices, but they say that it will be less than the one recommended by the Ministry of Economy.

“Retail, with the exception of the premium segment, where prices are maximum, willingly increases prices when it is recommended by the Ministry of Economy and decreases them much worse,” says Igor Egozarov. at the bottom they may not change. “

Gennady Ryabtsev added that the recent fire at “Ukrtatnafta” (the 13th of November).

“Although the management of the enterprise stated that the consequences have been eliminated and will not be reflected in the fuel supply schedule, for some traders this may become an additional reason not to reduce prices,” the expert suggests.

But the diesel engine should get cheaper quickly, Ryabtsev is sure, since before the onset of cold weather, the summer diesel fuel needs to be sold in order to free up space in the gas station tanks for the winter one.

For liquefied gas, the forecast is the same: prices – up.

“The filling of the market is balanced, although it is not complete without local deficit phenomena,” says Artem Kuyun. “Wholesalers have reduced their supply as much as possible in anticipation of price increases. Taking into account the cut in export volumes from the Russian Federation, there will definitely be no surplus gas, and the rise in prices at auctions demonstrates that they reached the cost of more expensive shipments from the sea, exceeding $ 800 / t “.

According to the expert’s forecasts, this week the rise in gas prices in retail will continue in the regions where it is the cheapest. By chains – first, the prices in the networks of the middle and economy segment will catch up with the premium chains. Then, due to the increase in wholesale prices by another 50 kopecks / l, it is possible that by the end of the week gas in the premium segment will overcome the psychological milestone of UAH 20 / l.

How justified is it to refuel with such an expensive gas, given that its consumption is 15-25% higher than gasoline, depending on the generation of LPG? Calculations show: for LPG of the 2nd generation (carburetor engines), the profitability limit will come at a gas price of UAH 25 / l, for LPG of a more economical 4th generation (injection engines) – at a gas price of UAH 28 / liter. So there is a “margin of safety”, but there is no need to talk about double savings, as it was before.

It is already unprofitable to put HBO on modern cars with a gasoline consumption of 5-6 liters per 100 km – it may not pay off. The exception is taxis and commercial vehicles, which have a large monthly mileage.

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