“They will sign what they say”: will Naftogaz be able to stop the launch of Nord Stream 2

The Ukrainian company Naftogaz still won the right to participate in the certification of Nord Stream 2, and the German regulator suspended this process altogether.

It would seem that the project may slow down a lot or will not start at all, but the situation is not as positive as it seems.

Gazprom is trying to create a subsidiary in Germany to control the part of the pipeline that runs through German territory.

The head of the “GTS Operator” of Ukraine Serhiy Makogon also said that the Russian monopoly does not plan to increase gas supplies to Europe at all until the second quarter of 2022.

Will Ukraine be able to influence the launch of the scandalous pipe and how the collective Europe changed its mind about Nord Stream 2, Segodnya discussed with an expert.

According to economist and financial analyst Alexei Kushch, “Naftogaz” is unlikely to be able to do something and his opinion will simply not be taken into account.

“I have very big doubts that Naftogaz will play a significant role here and will be able to completely block the certification of the project. Because either his opinion will not be taken into account, or he will simply sign what he will be told to sign.”

According to the expert, it will not be possible to completely stop the flow, and despite the saying “never say never”, with 99% probability, sooner or later, the gas pipeline will be launched.

The expert noted that a number of European countries are interested in this, including Germany, and on the other hand, Russia, which refuses to book additional capacities through existing gas pipelines.

Kushch emphasizes that strategically Ukraine is definitely losing because of the launch of Nord Stream 2, but if the battle is already lost, then an excessive delay aggravates the situation due to the policy of Gazprom, which does not in any way increase the volume of transit through the Ukrainian territory.

“Russia’s policy in this regard is understandable, Gazprom will try to accelerate the recoupment of the project, at least in part, therefore it will provide the main capacity for bypass gas pipelines.”

According to Alexei Kushch, Europe has only one way, since abandoning Nord Stream 2 means giving up Russian gas.

However, there are no substitutes for it yet, the expert says, and the same liquefied American gas that everyone is talking about does not correspond to the required volumes.

“On the one hand, Europe has a desire to reduce gas prices by increasing supplies to the spot market, but Nord Stream 2 actually does not solve anything at all in terms of saturating this market,” says the economist.

What do migrants have to do with it?

Aleksey Kushch emphasizes that the negative reaction of some European countries to the Nord Stream 2 certification process is also related to the humanitarian crisis on the Belarusian border.

Hundreds of migrants on the border with Poland and Lithuania are trying to illegally break through the barriers after the actions of the self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko.

“These gestures in relation to Nord Stream 2 are aimed at making Russia influence Belarus and for this crisis to be resolved, and the second point is to change the policy of the Russian Federation itself.”

If earlier the Kremlin tried to certify this project at once and in its entirety, now, having created a subsidiary in Germany, which owns a small section of the gas pipeline, Russia will try to use the already existing certification.

Earlier, Segodnya wrote how much it would be possible to postpone the launch of the pipeline, and also reported what losses Ukraine could incur due to the work of Nord Stream 2.