Fuel market: end of November will be hot in summer

Two force majeure events happened on the Ukrainian fuel market in a week: first major fire accident at Ukrtatnafta, which led to the shutdown of the plant, then cutting the supply of fuel by Belarusian suppliers by almost half.

The market for gasoline and diesel, the prices of which went down, froze right there in anticipation of a major “storm”. Only autogas habitually rose in price, approaching a record 20 hryvnyas per liter.

A detailed analysis of the situation on the fuel market and forecasts of what will happen with fuel prices in November were given by our experts: Director of the A-95 Consulting Group Sergey Kuyun, Deputy Director of the Psyche Scientific and Technical Center Gennady Ryabtsev and a market expert liquefied gas Artem Kuyun.

: Prices for gasoline and diesel went down, how much will the fuel be by the end of November

What has changed in a week

Gasoline prices behaved differently. A-95 fell in price by 2-11 kopecks / l, depending on the region, to the maximum (by 15 kopecks / l) – in the Luhansk region, where its cost was the highest. The price of A-92, which is much less price capsrecommended by the Cabinet of Ministers for gasoline remained stable. Diesel also fell in price a little: by 1-15 kopecks. depending on the region, and in the Donbass it even went up by 12 kopecks / liter. The maximum decrease in prices – by 17 kopecks / l was also in the Luhansk region.

Autogas only grew in price – on average by 25 kopecks / l, in most regions – by 27-30 kopecks / l. The largest increase in prices (+33 kopecks / l) in the Transcarpathian region, the smallest growth (+18 kopecks / l) – in Rivne.

According to experts, the decline in prices for gasoline and diesel fuel slowed down for two reasons: the termination of fuel shipment due to the accident at Ukrtatnafta (20% of the market) and the absence of new recommended prices, which are published every 10 days. They are expected to be announced on November 25th. While the retail price of “regular” gasoline should not exceed 33.18 UAH / l, “ordinary” diesel fuel – 31.55 UAH / l.

Recall: the government introduced price regulation for non-premium gasoline and diesel fuel in May this year during quarantine in order to prevent unreasonable price increases. The cost of premium fuel and autogas is not regulated.

The highest prices for gasoline A-92 and diesel in the Luhansk region: A-92 costs UAH 32.18 / l, diesel fuel – UAH 32.01 / l. The most expensive gasoline A-95 is again in Kiev – 33 UAH / l.

The lowest prices for gasoline and diesel fuel in the Sumy region: A-92 – 30.12 UAH / l, A-95 – 31.10 UAH / l – have not changed, diesel fuel – 29.97 UAH / l (-1 kopeck / l). Sumy region is still the only region where diesel fuel can be refueled for less than 30 UAH / liter.

The most expensive gas in the Odessa region is 19.23 UAH / l (+23 kopecks / l), the cheapest gas is again in Kiev – 18.82 UAH / l.

The range of prices did not change for A-92 gasoline, decreased for A-95 and diesel fuel and increased for gas. For A-92 the spread is 6.9% (2.06 UAH / l), for A-95 – 6.1% (1.90 UAH / l), it was 6.3%, for diesel – 6.8% (2.04 UAH / l), it was 7.3%, for gas – 2.2% (0.41 UAH / l), it was 1.9%.

What are the prices in all regions – see the infographic.

Prices for A-92

The average price in Ukraine is 30.87 UAH / l (0 kopecks)

Prices for A-95

The average price in Ukraine is 31.77 UAH / l (-6 kopecks)

Diesel fuel prices

The average price in Ukraine is 30.56 UAH / l (-5 kopecks)

LPG prices

The average price in Ukraine is 19 UAH / l (+25 kopecks)

Analysis of the market situation

In contrast to the sluggish retail, wholesale prices showed a rapid growth over the week. According to Serhiy Kuyun, diesel fuel has risen in price on average by UAH 2.13 / l (+ 7.97%) over the week, gasoline – by 43 kopecks / l (+ 1.51%). The reason was the pause in shipments from Kremenchug due to the accident.

“The trouble does not come alone,” the Belarusians “pleased” by reporting a 30-40% reduction in November supplies, although it was about 10-15%, – says Sergei Kuyun. – And this is minus almost 100 thousand tons. The official version is the government Belarus was obliged to create 30-day stocks in the domestic market. The Ukrainian market began to grow rapidly, at the end of the week the wholesale market entered at UAH 28-29 / l “.

Sergei Kuyun recalled that Belarusian refineries are the largest suppliers of diesel fuel to Ukraine. In 2021, they account for 43% of supplies (2.34 million tons), which is more than a year ago, by a third (there were 1.73 million tons).

Gennady Ryabtsev is sure that the Ukrainian retail used the problems in Kremenchug as an excuse to stop the decline in retail prices. But in reality, traders are now insuring themselves and ordering more fuel in Belarus than necessary. According to him, the excitement has already subsided, wholesale prices have stopped and are ready to decline.

Artem Kuyun said that the growth of prices for LPG-gas, both in wholesale and retail, continued throughout the week. The average wholesale price increased by 390 UAH / t, to 32,270 UAH / t. The average price of liquefied gas in the filling station networks increased by 25 kopecks / l, to UAH 19.00 / l.

At WOG, the cost of gas increased by 10 kopecks / l, up to 19.68 hryvnias / l, at SOCAR – by 20 kopecks / l, up to 19.58 hryvnias / l. Autogas on AMIC went up in price by 16 kopecks / l, to 18.77 UAH / l, on Shell, the resource added 8 kopecks / l (up to 18.97 UAH / l). At “BRSM-Nafta” and Motto gas prices increased by an average of 33 and 19 kopecks / l, to 19.30 hryvnias / l and 19.24 hryvnias / l, respectively. The Privat chain increased prices by an average of 15-16 kopecks / liter, up to 18.32-18.33 UAH / liter. A number of other chains have raised prices by 10-40 kopecks / liter.

What can change in a week

Experts disagreed in their forecasts about what the new calculated recommended prices of the Cabinet of Ministers for gasoline and diesel fuel, which will affect the level of prices in the market, will turn out.

Gennady Ryabtsev says that their growth is possible, including because the dollar has risen in price by 50 kopecks in a week.

“Fuel is bought in foreign currency, but sold in hryvnia, each rise in the price of the dollar by 10 kopecks. Adds about 6 kopecks to the price of a liter of fuel,” said Gennady Ryabtsev.

Sergei Kuyun’s calculations show that the recommended prices for gasoline should still decrease by 70 kopecks / l, to almost UAH 31 / l, for diesel fuel – by as much as UAH 1 / l, to UAH 29.5 / l. The expert clarified: the numbers can be adjusted, but the decline will be unambiguous. Moreover, after the restoration of Ukrtatnafta shipments in Ukraine, wholesale prices have already gone down.

That being said, it is unclear whether retail prices will actually be cut that much. The main reason is a possible shortage of fuel.

“This week the market expects the return of Ukrtatnafta to the market, which announced the elimination of problems,” analyzes Sergei Kuyun. “It is possible that the Belarusian mood will also change. t.), which will be problematic to quickly neutralize. The end of November will be hot in summer. “

The forecast for liquefied gas is disappointing: it will become even more expensive, and noticeably.

According to Gennady Ryabtsev, the high season for the consumption of liquefied autogas has not stopped, as is usually the case before winter. It began to be purchased for industrial purposes from elevators, sugar factories and other structures that used to use gaseous methane (natural gas). Now methane is twice as expensive as LPG gas, and its supply on the market has not grown much.

Artem Kuyun is pessimistic: the rise in gas prices should exceed 20 UAH / l in retail by the end of November (while the maximum price is 19.88) and go further.

“The range of prices will be from 19.50 UAH / l for discounters to 20.50 UAH / l in premium chains,” the expert said.

Although the price of gasoline changed little, Ukraine was shaken by other high-profile events. See the plot for more details.