What will hit the exchange rate before the New Year? The expert named three factors

The trend for the strengthening of the hryvnia against the dollar and the euro was broken on the interbank market in the second half of November. To stabilize exchange rates, the NBU took an active part in trading.

Andrey Goilov, Roboforex analyst, told Segodnya what key factors will influence the quotes of the interbank market.

Transfers of labor migrants

Ukrainian migrant workers transfer on average more than USD 1 billion per month. Most of these funds are spent within Ukraine. It should be borne in mind that in December migrants try to return home to their families. Consequently, the supply of foreign currencies on their part may increase significantly. Banks will less often enter the market with the sale of the hryvnia, which will have a positive effect on the dynamics of its exchange rate.

SURFACE IN ORDLO

One of the main reasons for the devaluation of the hryvnia was the statement by the head of the military intelligence of Ukraine that the Russian Federation was preparing to unleash a full-fledged war. Investors began to withdraw their funds to parent jurisdictions, thereby creating an increased demand for foreign currencies. The head of the NSDC of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov denied the statements of the military intelligence, but the market ignored his words.

In particular, non-residents are actively reducing their OVDP portfolios. On December 1, a large payment of interest on these securities is expected, which may provoke a new round of devaluation of the hryvnia.

Government bonds yield and consumer inflation

Against the background of the weakening of the Ukrainian national currency, consumer inflation is likely to resume its growth. This, in turn, will “push” the NBU to increase the discount rate. Otherwise, the weighted average yield on government bonds will be almost negative.

Here, foreign investors can, even in the absence of political risks, begin to actively reduce their portfolios in this asset. If the yield on “long” securities starts to grow at the auctions of the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine for the placement of government bonds, this will have a favorable effect on the hryvnia exchange rate at the end of this year.

We also wrote that the NBU calculated the new dollar and euro exchange rates for Monday, November 29. Compared to the NBU exchange rate on Friday, November 26, the dollar has risen in price by 7 kopecks, and the euro, by 23 kopecks.