Fuel market: gasoline and diesel are rapidly falling in price, what will be the prices in December

Finally! Fuel prices in Ukraine they went down and quite noticeably. We are talking about gasoline and diesel, but autogas also almost stopped rising in price. Analysis of the situation on the fuel market and forecasts of what will happen with fuel prices in December were given by our experts: Director of the A-95 Consulting Group Sergey Kuyun, Deputy Director of the Psyche Scientific and Technical Center Gennady Ryabtsev and an expert on the liquefied gas Artem Kuyun.

: Fuel market: what gasoline prices await Ukrainians

What has changed in a week

The main news of the week was the publication of the Ministry of Economy new maximum recommended prices for gasoline and diesel fuel. For the second decade in a row they were lower than the previous ones for gasoline and for the third decade in a row – for diesel fuel. In September-October, oil products only rose in price.

Now the maximum price for “regular” gasoline for retail sale should not exceed 32.15 UAH / l (-1.03 UAH / l), for “regular” diesel fuel – 30.83 UAH / l (-0.72 UAH / l).

Recall: the government introduced price regulation for non-premium gasoline and diesel fuel in May this year during quarantine in order to prevent unreasonable price increases. The cost of premium fuel and autogas is not regulated.

For two decades, the decrease in the estimated recommended prices for gasoline amounted to 1.25 UAH / liter, for diesel fuel – 1.07 UAH / liter. Real prices dropped much less: gasoline A-92 fell in price by an average of 25 kopecks / liter, A-95 – by 43 kopecks / liter, diesel fuel – by 27 kopecks / liter.

Only premium brands (OKKO, WOG, SOCAR and a number of others), whose prices correspond to the calculated prices and fluctuate up and down with them, fully followed the recommendations of the Ministry of Economy. The rest of the filling station chains, primarily of the lower price segment, were in no hurry to rewrite the price tags down.

Autogas almost stopped rising in price, in most regions prices increased within 10 kopecks / l, and in Ternopil and Chernivtsi – did not change. The largest growth – by 17 kopecks / l – was in the Sumy region, where gas prices are low.

The highest prices for gasoline A-92 and diesel are in the Luhansk region: A-92 costs 31.57 UAH / liter, diesel fuel – 31.44 UAH / liter. The most expensive gasoline A-95 in Kiev is 32.70 UAH / liter.

The lowest prices for gasoline and diesel fuel in the Sumy region: A-92 – 30.07 UAH / liter, A-95 – 31.01 UAH / liter, diesel fuel – 29.93 UAH / liter.

The most expensive gas is in the Donetsk region – 19.31 UAH / l, the cheapest – in the Kherson region – 18.88 UAH / l.

The range of prices decreased for gasoline and diesel fuel and increased for gas. For A-92, the spread is 5% (1.5 UAH / l), it was 6.9%, for A-95 – 5.4% (1.69 UAH / l), it was 6.1%, for diesel – 5% (1.51 UAH / l), it was 6.8%, for gas – 2.3% (0.43 UAH / l), it was 2.2%.

What are the prices in all regions – see the infographic.

Prices for A-92

The average price in Ukraine is 30.62 UAH / l (-25 kopecks)

Prices for A-95

The average price in Ukraine is 31.77 UAH / l (-37 kopecks)

Diesel fuel prices

The average price in Ukraine is 30.56 UAH / l (-22 kopecks)

LPG prices

The average price in Ukraine is 19.06 UAH / l (+6 kopecks)

Analysis of the market situation

Two trends have emerged on the Ukrainian market. First, prices in small wholesalers began to decline. Second, the number of offers increased markedly, wholesale prices began to fall as soon as traders realized where the market was going to move.

“The internal news added confidence to the market: since November 22, the Kremenchug refinery resumed the sale of gasoline in large and small wholesale after a recent accident,” says Sergei Kuyun. “The Belarusian oil company is making every effort to fulfill November shipments to Ukrainian counterparties, although there were earlier problems. for small wholesale lots of diesel fuel, on average, they decreased by 1.26 UAH / l (-4.37%), gasoline fell in price by 68 kopecks / l (-2.33%) “.

Retail prices also went down. At WOG and OKKO, gasoline A-95 fell in price by 1.03 UAH / l, to 32.15 UAH / l, A-92 – by 0.74 kopecks / l, to 31.75 UAH / l, diesel fuel – by 72 cop / l, up to 30.83 UAH / l. In the UPG network, prices for gasoline and diesel fuel decreased by 60-90 kopecks / l: A-92 – up to 30.70 UAH / l, A-95 – up to 31.30 UAH / l and diesel fuel – up to 28.90 UAH / l. KLO has reduced prices in the range of 0.74-1.1 UAH / liter. In the SOCAR network, A-95 fell by 1.03 UAH / l, to 32.15 UAH / l, A-92 – by 1 UAH / l, to 31.98 UAH / l. A number of other networks have reduced the price of all types of fuel by 0.1-1 UAH / liter.

Gennady Ryabtsev confirmed that the launch of the Kremenchug refinery and the decrease in oil prices in the world from $ 77 to $ 75.5 per barrel increased the supply of fuel on the Ukrainian market and pushed wholesalers to lower prices.

“Retail so far, as usual, has been in no hurry to reduce prices by the amount recommended by the Ministry of Economy, first of all, these are the networks of the lower price segment,” the expert emphasized.

The main news on the autogas market, according to Artem Kuyun, was a change in the price trend in wholesale.

“Since November 18, when quotations reached their peak values, on the Ukrainian border, wholesale gas fell on average by $ 55 / t, on the Belarusian-Polish border – by $ 116 / t, this is 5% and 10%, respectively,” he said. Artem Kuyun.

In retail, gas prices continued to grow, by an average of 6 kopecks over the week, to UAH 19.06 / liter. At WOG gas stations – by 10 kopecks / l, up to 19.68 UAH / l, at SOCAR – by 30 kopecks / l, up to 19.98 UAH / l. The Privat chain increased prices by 38 kopecks / liter to UAH 18.33 / liter. At “BRSM-Nafta” and Motto gas prices increased by 34 and 20 kopecks / l, to 19.31 hryvnias / l and 19.25 hryvnias / l, KLO and Avantage 7 raised prices by 20 kopecks / l and 30 cop / l, up to 19.59 UAH / l and 18.55 UAH / l. A number of other networks – at 10-40 kopecks / liter.

What can change in a week

Experts expect a further decline in retail prices for gasoline and diesel fuel and stable prices for autogas in early December.

“Much will be determined by the exchange rate of the hryvnia, which is slowly devaluing,” says Gennady Ryabtsev. “The potential for a decrease of about UAH 1 / liter for both gasoline and diesel fuel, but whether it will be realized depends on both oil prices and the rate of the hryvnia “.

Sergei Kuyun is not sure that the decline in prices for petroleum products will become a long-term trend.

“Oil prices are recovering: a barrel rose by 3‒5% on November 29 and for some time the price exceeded the level of $ 76. The prices were supported by the opinion of a number of investors that Friday’s price collapse due to concerns about the Omicron strain turned out to be excessive “, – analyzes Sergey Kuyun.

According to Artem Kuyun’s forecast, retail prices for autogas will stabilize this week, but will not decrease. The reason is that traders need to sell expensive stocks. And in December, autogas should fall in price.

“Among the factors affecting the price decline in the short term, traders point to the expectations of a further reduction in oil prices and a seasonal decrease in demand for liquefied gas in Ukraine and Eastern Europe,” the expert explained.

Due to expensive fuel, more and more Ukrainians are thinking about buying an electric car. The trend towards “electrification” was also appreciated by the authorities. See the plot for more details.