Fuel market: prices continue to decline, what to expect by the end of the year

In Ukraine continue to fall in price gasoline and diesel fuel. Let not by much, by 5-10 kopecks per liter, but still the trend is downward. And the price of liquefied gas, which broke all recordsappears to be preparing to go down. So it will be even cheaper to refuel by the New Year than it is now. How much prices will fall, found out “Today”.

Our experts: Director of the A-95 Consulting Group Sergey Kuyun, Deputy Director of the Psyche Scientific and Technical Center Gennady Ryabtsev and expert on the liquefied gas market Artem Kuyun.

What has changed in a week

The Ministry of Economy published on December 14 new maximum recommended prices for gasoline and diesel fuel… As the experts expected, they turned out to be slightly lower than the previous ones. Now the maximum price for “ordinary” gasoline should not exceed 30.78 UAH / l (-10 kopecks), for “ordinary” diesel fuel – 30.13 UAH / l (-14 kopecks). The decrease in recommended prices has been going on for five consecutive weeks for gasoline and seven consecutive weeks for diesel fuel. In September-October, oil products only rose in price.

Let’s remind: price regulation on non-premium gasoline and diesel fuel, the government introduced in May this year during quarantine in order to prevent unreasonable price increases. The cost of premium fuel and autogas is not regulated.

For a week, gasoline and diesel fuel fell in price in all regions and in Kiev by 1-18 kopecks / l. The largest decrease in prices for gasoline A-95 – in the Donetsk region: by 18 kopecks / l, for diesel – in the Kiev region: by 16 kopecks / l.

The highest prices for gasoline A-92 and diesel are in the Luhansk region: A-92 costs UAH 30.28 / l (unchanged), diesel fuel – UAH 30.91 / l (-11 kopecks). The most expensive gasoline A-95 in Kiev is 31.43 UAH / l (-1 kopeck).

The lowest prices for gasoline in the Sumy region: A-92 – 29.02 UAH / l (-1 kopecks), A-95 – 29.95 UAH / l (-2 kopecks), for diesel fuel – in the Transcarpathian region – 28 , 93 UAH / l (-5 kopecks).

The cost of autogas in most regions (13 out of 25, including Kiev) has not changed. In four regions, gas rose in price by 2-6 kopecks / liter, in eight regions it fell by 1-6 kopecks / liter. The most expensive gas is still in the Luhansk region. -19.39 UAH / l, the cheapest is in the Rivne region. – 18.84 UAH / l. Average prices in both regions did not change.

The range of prices did not change for gasoline and autogas and decreased for diesel fuel. For A-92 the spread is 4.3% (1.26 UAH / l), for A-95 – 4.9% (1.48 UAH / l), for diesel – 6.6% (1.92 UAH / l), it was 7%, for gas – 5.2% (0.95 UAH / l).

What are the prices in all regions – see the infographic.

Prices for A-92

Average price in Ukraine – 29.48 UAH / l (-2 kopecks)

Prices for A-95

The average price in Ukraine is 30.21 UAH / l (-5 kopecks)

Diesel fuel prices

Average price in Ukraine – 29.46 UAH / l (-6 kopecks)

LPG prices

The average price in Ukraine is 19.06 UAH / l (-1 kopeck)

Analysis of the market situation

Gennady Ryabtsev says that if it were not for the recommendations of the Ministry of Economics, then retail prices might not have changed, since the market entered price equilibrium.

“Over the past week, there have been no significant price changes, as expected,” stated Gennady Ryabtsev. season “. It will begin this week and will run until January 10.”

According to Sergei Kuyun, the prices of the network of premium-segment filling stations WOG, OKKO, Shell, Parallel, SOCAR, whose prices correspond to the boundary ones, have been reduced to the recommended ones. After them, we rewrote the price tags and a number of chains operating in the middle and lower price segments.

So, in the AMIC network, prices for gasoline and diesel fuel decreased by 17 kopecks / l: A-92 – up to 30.03 UAH / l, A-95 – up to 30.61 UAH / l and diesel fuel – up to 29.96 UAH / l. In the Katral network, DT and A-92 gasoline fell by 40 kopecks / l, to UAH 29.37 / l and UAH 29.99 / l, respectively, A-95 – by 20 kopecks / l, to 30.57 UAH / l. BRSM-Nafta, BVS, Chipo, Ovis and Motto have reduced the price of fuel by 5-50 kopecks per liter.

“The wholesale market of Ukraine has chosen a downward trend, according to traders, this is caused, firstly, by high stocks, and secondly, by a noticeable reduction in demand in early December,” analyzes Serhiy Kuyun. “Excess stocks and seasonal decrease in consumption put pressure on prices, which may continue to decline due to the expected cold weather.

The market has entered a period of low demand, which is forcing price reductions so as not to be left with a large margin for the period of protracted holidays. Small-scale wholesale lots of diesel fuel dropped in price by 62 kopecks / l (-2.41%), gasoline – by 21 kopecks / l (-0.76%). “

Wholesale prices for liquefied gas also continued to decline. According to “A-95”, gas prices at the auction on December 20 amounted to UAH 29,280-29,600 / t. So far, the trend is multidirectional: from – 960 UAH / t to +360 UAH / t, depending on the seller. But earlier it was more expensive: on December 16, Ukrgasvydobuvannya sold 855 tons of gas at UAH 29,826 / ton (-689 UAH / ton for trading on December 14).

“In the wholesale, the price continued to fall, but somehow uncertainly, and the volumes sold at a lower price are still small,” says Artem Kuyun. – Auth.). But the retail price should already fall below UAH 19 / liter. While the market is hiding, against the background of a decline in sales, traders are waiting to see who will falter first. “

What can change in a week

The opinions of experts on gasoline and diesel fuel differed: Gennady Ryabtsev is sure that during the week the average prices will not differ from the current ones, and Sergei Kuyun says that they will decrease even more.

“Gasoline and diesel will fall in price by an average of 15-20 kopecks per liter in a week,” Sergei Kuyun calculated.

A more unpredictable situation in the gas market. According to Artem Kuyun’s forecast, retail gas prices will remain stable until the end of this week. But further, when the demand for the holidays will decrease even further, a serious collapse is quite possible.

“If premium brands lower their prices to UAH 19 / l, which is 65-98 kopecks, then the rest of the chains will have to rewrite the price tags, since the average price difference is now within the range of 50-60 kopecks / liter,” said Artem Kuyun.

Fuel is getting cheaper, and in megalopolises cars additionally burn it in traffic jams due to snowfall. See the plot for more details.