Fuel market: “New Year’s hibernation” of prices is canceled, we are waiting for a rise in prices

Before the New Year, a joke from motorists appeared on social networks: “Hello, Santa Claus, a beard made of cotton! Make the A-95 go down in price!” But so far the Ministry of Economy has raised prices for gasoline and diesel fuel, and some networks, on the contrary, have reduced them even without Santa Claus. Finally went down and “space” prices for autogas… Segodnya found out how the prices for oil products can change during the New Year and Christmas holidays.

Our experts: Director of the Consulting Group A-95 Sergey Kuyun, Deputy Director of the Scientific and Technical Center “Psyche” Gennady Ryabtsev and expert on the liquefied gas market Artem Kuyun.

What has changed in a week

The Ministry of Economy published on December 22 new maximum recommended prices for gasoline and diesel fuel. They turned out to be higher than the previous ones. Now the maximum price for “ordinary” gasoline should not exceed 30.97 UAH / l (+19 kopecks), for “ordinary” diesel fuel – 30.16 UAH / l (+3 kopecks).

This is the first increase in recommended prices in November and December, before they declined… During this time, the recommended prices of the Ministry of Economy dropped by 3.33 UAH / l for gasoline and by 4.20 UAH / l for diesel. Average retail prices at filling stations decreased over two months by 1.1 UAH / l for gasoline and 0.7 UAH / l for diesel.

Experts explain the significant difference by the fact that the networks of the medium and economy segment lowered prices much less than the Ministry of Economy recommended, since they were below the limit.

“They trade at maximum prices only at premium-segment filling stations, so their prices for A-95 gasoline fell in November and December by UAH 3.30 / l, diesel fuel – by UAH 4.20 / liter. At cheaper gas stations, prices did not decrease so quickly, or even did not change, despite the recommendations, which ultimately affected the average prices “, – explained Gennady Ryabtsev.

Recall: the government introduced price regulation for non-premium gasoline and diesel fuel in May this year during quarantine in order to prevent unreasonable price increases. The cost of premium fuel and autogas is not regulated.

The recommendations of the Ministry of Economy changed the trend towards a decrease in gasoline prices in a number of regions, primarily where the share of premium-segment filling stations is high. In half of the regions, gasoline has risen in price by an average of 1-7 kopecks / liter. in half, plus Kiev fell by 1-16 kopecks / liter. The largest decrease in gasoline prices in the Transcarpathian and Vinnitsa regions – by 16 kopecks. / l, the largest growth in the Luhansk region. – by 11 kopecks / l But diesel fuel has dropped in price everywhere by 1-18 kopecks / l.

The highest prices for gasoline A-92 and diesel in the Luhansk region: A-92 costs 30.35 UAH / l (+7 kopecks), diesel fuel – 30.91 UAH / l (unchanged). The most expensive gasoline A-95 in Kiev is 31.40 UAH / l (-3 kopecks).

The lowest prices for gasoline in the Sumy region: A-92 – 28.96 UAH / l (-6 kopecks), A-95 – 29.87 UAH / l (-8 kopecks), for diesel fuel in the Transcarpathian region – 28 , 75 UAH / l (-18 kopecks).

The cost of autogas in most regions (21 out of 25) went down by 2-7 kopecks / l or did not change. In three regions and in Kiev, gas rose in price within the limits of the statistical error – by 1-2 kopecks / liter. The most expensive gas is still in the Luhansk region. – 19.39 UAH / l (the price has not changed), the cheapest is in the Rivne region. – 18.81 UAH / l (-3 kopecks).

The range of prices increased for gasoline and diesel fuel and decreased for autogas. For A-92 the spread is 5.5% (1.39 UAH / l), it was 4.3%, for A-95 – 5.1% (1.53 UAH / l), it was 4.9%, diesel – 7.5% (2.16 UAH / l), it was 6.6%, for gas – 3.1% (0.58 UAH / l), it was 5.2%.

What are the prices in all regions – see the infographic.

Prices for A-92

The average price in Ukraine is 29.44 UAH / l (-4 kopecks)

Prices for A-95

The average price in Ukraine is 30.21 UAH / l (0 kopecks)

Diesel fuel prices

The average price in Ukraine is 29.40 UAH / l (-6 kopecks)

LPG prices

The average price in Ukraine is 19.04 UAH / l (-2 kopecks)

Analysis of the market situation

Gennady Ryabtsev says that the main reason for the rise in fuel prices was the instability of oil prices in the world. This led to an increase in quotations in our wholesale, the downward trend was replaced by a growing one. The last point was the recommendations of the Ministry of Economy on marginal prices.

According to Sergei Kuyun, retail prices behaved in different directions: in some premium-segment filling station networks, whose prices correspond to the boundary ones, the prices increased to the recommended ones.

“At WOG and OKKO, gasoline A-95 rose in price by 19 kopecks / l, up to 30.97 hryvnias / l, diesel fuel by 3 kopecks / l, to 30.16 hryvnias / l. At stations of the Shell network, gasoline rose in price by 19 20 kopecks / l: A-92 – up to 30.59 UAH / l, A-95 – up to 30.97 UAH / l. The price of diesel fuel increased by 3 kopecks / l, to 30.16 UAH / l “, – the expert specified.

But the gas station networks operating in the economy and middle segments have reduced the cost of gasoline and diesel fuel by 20-50 kopecks / liter. At the stations of the Chipo network, gasoline fell by 36 kopecks / l: A-92 – up to 29.06 UAH / l, A-95 – up to 29.76 UAH / l. The price of diesel fuel dropped by 54 kopecks / l, to 28.56 UAH / l. In the Marshal network, prices fell by 30 kopecks / l: A-92 dropped in price to 28.50 UAH / l, A-95 – to 29.50 UAH / l, diesel fuel – to 28.10 UAH / l. All types of fuel in the “Avantage” network fell in price by 50 kopecks / l, KLO – by 30-40 kopecks / l. A number of other chains have reduced prices by 10-70 kopecks / liter.

Autogas also continued to fall in price. According to Artem Kuyun, gas station networks of economy and medium price segments have reduced its cost within the range of 10-25 kopecks / liter. At gas stations KLO and Avantage 7, the price of gas decreased by 9 and 10 kopecks / l, to 19.49 hryvnyas / l and 18.42 hryvnias / l, respectively. Gas at Mango stations fell in price by 23 kopecks / l, to UAH 18.75 / l.

What can change in a week

The opinions of experts on gasoline and diesel fuel differed.

Sergei Kuyun says that retail prices will remain at their current level this week and during the holidays. According to him, the last recommended prices from the Ministry of Economy this year, which should appear no later than December 31, will differ little from the current ones. This will serve as an additional factor of stability.

Gennady Ryabtsev is sure that price increases cannot be avoided.

“The traditional“ New Year’s hibernation ”we expected earlier, most likely, will not happen, gasoline and diesel for this week plus long holidays will rise by an average of 30-40 kopecks per liter, – Gennady Ryabtsev calculated. , the growth of wholesale prices for imports and, as it turned out, not all of our traders had time to buy enough fuel supplies so that there would be no shortage of fuel for the holidays. “

Artem Kuyun expects that the decline in autogas prices will continue both at the end of this year and at the beginning of next year.

“The wholesale has accumulated a potential of about 1 hryvnia per liter, and although the price of oil, which indirectly affects the price of LPG gas, has gone up steeply again, I think that an inertial decline will sooner or later take place,” Artem Kuyun argues. the rise in oil prices will continue, the overall picture will not change during the holidays. But if by the New Year the oil price goes down sharply, then the potential that has accumulated will be realized faster. “

We began the article with a joke about Santa Claus, and will end it with a sensational news about Santa Claus: over Kiev on December 28, people saw … Santa’s New Year’s sleigh flying! In all seriousness! See the plot for more details