Gasoline and diesel prices rise sharply, prices tend to record

In Ukraine again fuel prices rise noticeably… The rise in prices for gasoline and diesel began even before the New Year, but turned out to be symbolic – within 10 kopecks / liter. And during the New Year and Christmas holidays, the cost of gasoline increased by an order of magnitude – by 1 UAH / liter. Against this background, stable auto gas prices are already good news. In November auto gas prices set a record rise in price.

Why oil products rose in price, despite the “dead” season, and how prices can change by mid-January, found out “Segodnya”.

Our experts: Director of the A-95 Consulting Group Sergey Kuyun, Deputy Director of the Psyche Scientific and Technical Center Gennady Ryabtsev and expert on the liquefied gas market Artem Kuyun.

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What has changed in a week

The Ministry of Economy published on January 4 new maximum recommended prices for gasoline and diesel fuel… They turned out to be noticeably higher than the previous ones: by hryvnia per liter for gasoline and by 66 kopecks per liter for diesel. Now the maximum price for “ordinary” gasoline should not exceed 31.97 UAH / l (+1 UAH), for “ordinary” diesel fuel – 30.82 UAH / l (+66 kopecks).

The recommendations of the Ministry of Economy have strengthened the trend towards an increase in gasoline prices in a number of regions, primarily where the share of premium-segment filling stations selling at maximum prices is high. So, for example, in Kiev, gasoline A-95 has risen in price by 94 hryvnia / l, in the Luhansk region – by 93 kopecks / l. But in the Sumy region, the rise in prices for A-95 gasoline amounted to only 12 kopecks / liter. In most regions, gasoline prices increased by 35-40 kopecks per liter.

Diesel fuel has risen in price less: by an average of 26 kopecks / liter. The most notable growth is also in the capital: by 64 kopecks / liter, the smallest – in Sumy region: 7 kopecks / liter. In most regions, diesel fuel prices increased by 25-30 kopecks / liter.

The highest prices for gasoline A-92 and diesel in the Luhansk region: A-92 costs 31.22 UAH / l (+87 kopecks), diesel fuel – 31.44 UAH / l (+53 kopecks / l). The most expensive gasoline A-95 in Kiev is 32.34 UAH / l (+94 kopecks / l).

The lowest prices for gasoline and diesel fuel in the Sumy region: A-92 – UAH 29.07 / l (+11 kopecks), A-95 – UAH 29.99 / l (+12 kopecks), diesel fuel – 28, 99 UAH / l (+7 kopecks).

The cost of autogas can be called stable. Prices did not change or changed within the statistical error (1-2 kopecks / l) in 22 out of 25 regions. Only in the Kharkiv region gas fell by 5 kopecks / l, in Donetsk – by 4 kopecks / l, and in Kiev it rose by 4 kopecks / l. The most expensive gas is still in the Luhansk region. – 19.39 UAH / l (the price has not changed), the cheapest is in the Rivne region. – 18.80 UAH / l (-1 kopeck).

The range of prices increased for gasoline and diesel fuel and did not change for autogas. For A-92, the spread is 7.4% (2.15 UAH / l), it was 5.5%, for A-95 – 7.8% (2.35 UAH / l), it was 5.1%, diesel – 8.5% (2.45 UAH / l), it was 7.5%, for gas – 3.1% (0.59 UAH / l).

What are the prices in all regions – see the infographic.

Prices for A-92

The average price in Ukraine is 29.83 UAH / l (+39 kopecks)

Prices for A-95

The average price in Ukraine is 30.63 UAH / l (+42 kopecks)

Diesel fuel prices

The average price in Ukraine is 29.66 UAH / l (+26 kopecks)

LPG prices

The average price in Ukraine is 19.04 UAH / l (0 kopecks)

Analysis of the market situation

Experts call the rise in fuel prices in retail generally justified, since in December and early January, world oil prices increased by more than 10%, which means that both gasoline and diesel prices went up. And Ukraine, we recall, imports up to 80% of oil products.

“Now the price of oil is $ 82 per barrel, and a month ago it was $ 74, an increase of almost 11%,” says Sergei Kuyun. “Considering the monthly interval required for the production of fuel and its logistics, we see another rise in prices.”

According to Serhiy Kuyun, in Ukraine retail prices in the networks of premium-segment filling stations, whose prices correspond to the boundary ones, have increased to those recommended by the Ministry of Economy. Retail chains of filling stations operating in the economy and medium segments have increased the cost of fuel within the range of 0.2-1 UAH / liter. In particular, at KLO stations, gasoline prices went up by 30 kopecks / liter, diesel fuel – by 40 kopecks / liter. Thus, the price for A-95 increased to 31.29 UAH / l, for A-92 – up to 30.99 UAH / l, for diesel fuel – up to 29.99 UAH / l. In the network “Avantage 7” prices for all types of fuel increased by 50 kopecks / l: A-95 rose to 29.45 UAH / l, A-92 – up to 28.45 UAH / l, diesel fuel – up to 27.85 UAH / l. “BRSM-Nafta”, BVS, Chipo, Motto and a number of other increased prices within the range of 0.2-1 UAH / liter.

Gennady Ryabtsev still claims that retail prices are growing at a faster pace than wholesale prices.

“The Ministry of Economy had certain preconditions for such a decision, because oil in the world rose by 4-6% only in January,” says Gennady Ryabtsev. “This is speculative growth, but it affected the cost of fuel.”

The expert calculated: prices in wholesale increased from the end of December to January 10 by 3%, and in retail the Ministry of Economy recommended to increase prices by 4%.

Artem Kuyun emphasized that the dynamics of prices in the LPG gas market was influenced by events in Kazakhstan, from where Ukraine imports from 27% to 33% of gas.

“Kazakhstan has always been the main alternative to Russia and Belarus, and today it is the Kazakhstani channel that is threatened with closure, which may upset the fragile balance of the Ukrainian liquefied gas market,” says Artem Kuyun.

According to him, there is no reliable information on the near future of gas exports from Kazakhstan. But Ukrainian traders need to start working out possible scenarios, including a complete cessation of gas shipments from this country.

“Supplies from the west will turn out to be more expensive, but they will add no more than UAH 1 / liter to the current prices, and if there is a shortage of product, consumers will always have an alternative in the form of gasoline,” Artem Kuyun summed up.

What can change in a week

Experts’ forecasts are disappointing: gasoline and diesel fuel will continue to rise in price. Another impetus to the rise in prices will be given by the new recommended prices from the Ministry of Economy, the publication of which is expected on January 13-14. Gennady Ryabtsev expects that they will rise within UAH 1 / liter. That is, ordinary, not premium, A-95 gasoline can cost about 33 UAH / liter. There have never been such high prices for this type of fuel in Ukraine.

Sergei Kuyun is more optimistic: according to his estimate, the growth will be no more than 30-40 kopecks per liter, that is, prices may return to those that were two months ago.

“The main factor in the rise in fuel prices is now oil,” the expert emphasized. “But there is enough gasoline and diesel in Ukraine.”

Artem Kuyun nevertheless considers a pessimistic scenario with the termination of gas supplies from Kazakhstan to be unlikely. He expects the political situation in this country to stabilize in the coming weeks. And in Ukraine, the potential for lowering prices for autogas will finally begin to be realized.

The expert recalled: gas can fall in price by 1 UAH / l, that is, on average up to 18 UAH / l.

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