“Golden” eggs: rating of the most expensive products, goods and services in 2021

In 2021, the contents of the wallet of every Ukrainian depreciated by 10%. That is how much, according to the estimates of the State Statistics Service, prices have risen over the years for all products, goods and services. Economists call these data underestimated, especially with regard to the rise in price of products.

“Today” compiled a rating of the most expensive products, goods and services over the past year, compared official data with expert estimates and found out what and how much could rise in price in the coming 2022.

: What will happen to salaries, prices, the dollar exchange rate and unemployment in the first quarter of 2022

What has changed in a year

Compared to 2020, inflation accelerated almost four times: it was 2.7%, it became 10% (year-on-year as a whole, and not December to December). Products also rose in price faster: by 10.8% in 2021 against 2.7% in 2020.

For comparison: in 2020, prices for most daily products were practically stable: bread, eggs, meat, sunflower oil, milk. Back in 2020, energy resources became cheaper: natural gas – by 18.8%, fuel – by 16%. In 2021, stability and cheaper prices were replaced by a rapid rise in prices by tens of percent per year.

grocery basket

As you can see from the infographic, the prices of three types of products have noticeably broken away from the average values. These are sugar (+61.5%) for the year, about 10 UAH/kg in money terms, sunflower oil (+57.7%), in money terms – almost 20 UAH/l and chicken eggs (47%) or more than 10 UAH for ten. By the way, in 2020, the prices for these three products were also in the top: for sugar, an increase of 48%, for butter – by 22%, for eggs – by 30%.

For reference: in January 2020, sugar cost UAH 14/kg, Oliya – UAH 34/l, eggs – UAH 21/ten.

/ Photo: Today

Almost 1.5 times more than the average inflation in 2021, bread and bakery products have risen in price. Only the increase in the cost of alcohol and tobacco by 9.8% does not cause any particular complaints. It happened due to a planned increase in excises, that is, lovers of “bad habits” replenished the state budget, and not the pockets of the owners of distilleries and tobacco companies.

The price reduction was small. Only vegetables (by 3.9%) and fruits (by 2.1%) fell in price over the year. But given the seasonal nature of prices for these products, there is no need to talk about any trends, because much of their cost depends on the weather and the size of the crop.

Goods and services

In the rating of goods and services, there are also three bright leaders. These are natural gas, which has risen in price by almost 66% over the year, oil products – by 24.2% and utility services – by 23.2%. If we evaluate it in money terms, then, for example, A-95 gasoline cost 24 UAH/l in January 2021, now it is 30.6 UAH/l.

/ Photo: Today

For the second year, prices for clothing and footwear continue to fall: in 2021 – by 4.5%, in 2020 – by 4.6%. That is, getting dressed and shoes, it seems, becomes cheaper every year. But, according to experts, we are talking about last year’s collections and consumer goods, fashionable and branded items, on the contrary, have risen in price. Almost 3% cheaper household items and household appliances, which in 2020 rose by 0.5%.

That is, in general, prices in annual terms have decreased for little: mainly these are either seasonal goods (fruits and vegetables) or what is not bought every day.

Alternative inflation: prices rose more

Our experts, Oleg Pendzin, a member of the Economic Discussion Club (EDC), and Oleksandr Okhrimenko, President of the Ukrainian Analytical Center, say that official inflation is underestimated, since prices for products and goods that Ukrainians buy far from everyone are monitored to calculate it. day.

According to Okhrimenko, food inflation in Ukraine amounted to about 14% in 2021. Calculations of price increases for other types of goods and services, primarily for fuel, utilities, fares, the expert considers correct.

Oleg Pendzin named even higher figures for food inflation – 19%.

The expert explained why statistical calculations do not always coincide with the realities of life.

“The State Statistics Service monthly calculates the cost of 335 items of goods and services, of which 135 items are products, the rest is manufactured goods and services: utilities, travel, repairs, insurance, and so on, up to funeral services,” says Oleg Pendzin. – Statistics displays an integral indicator of inflation , but since some goods and services for various reasons become more expensive, others less, something becomes cheaper, for example, in summer it is fruits and vegetables, so the average price increase for the whole year is insignificant.

Food inflation is calculated separately, but there are questions here as well. For example, bread. According to statistics, prices for bakery products rose by 14.3% over the year. According to alternative EDC calculations (we track 21 food items), only bread of mass varieties has risen in price by 22% over the year, pastries – much more. Question: what has risen in price by less than 22%? The answer is simple: bakery products include … rice, the price of which has increased by only 1.5% over the year. As well as dumplings, dumplings, cereals, and so on, which also rose in price a little.”

The expert gave examples for other groups of goods. Meat, according to statistics, has risen in price by 9%. But more than half of the meat consumed by Ukrainians is chicken. Chicken has risen in price by 30%, beef by 18%, pork by 7%. Given the share of chicken in the “meat basket”, it is difficult to understand the figure of 9%. Vegetables are said to have fallen in price. But we have half the growth in borscht, only potatoes have not risen in price.

Salaries and pensions

For the correctness of the calculations, it is worth comparing not only how average prices increased in 2021 compared to 2020, but also how average wages and pensions increased. According to the State Statistics Service, the average salary for January-December 2020 amounted to UAH 11,591 (+10.4%) per year, for January-November (latest data) 2021 – UAH 13,705 (+20.7%, twice as high as inflation).

But, according to the State Statistics Service, the average salary in Ukraine is received by only 3.6% of workers, the minimum and lower (6500 UAH, and for 11 months of 2021 the minimum wage was 6000 UAH, 4830 UAH in hand) – 33.4% of workers, below average, but above the minimum – 31.7% of employees.

The situation is even worse for pensioners. According to the Pension Fund, the average pension in Ukraine now is UAH 3,980, which is estimated to be received by about 10% of pensioners. And two out of three Ukrainian pensioners (more than 7 million people) have a pension from the minimum (UAH 1,934) to below the average. Recall that in March 2021, pensions were indexed by 11%, slightly higher than the official annual inflation.

That is, two out of three Ukrainians have low earnings or pensions. Therefore, the high average statistical increase in their incomes in percentage terms (if many workers had it at all) does not at all offset in terms of money the average increase in prices for the year, primarily for products of daily demand.

Predictions: Belts will have to be tightened

Experts say that in 2022 inflation should be expected no less than in 2021 (10%), although the state budget has 7%. First of all, food will rise in price. There are several reasons for this.

“Global inflation in 2021 was twice as high as usual: in Europe it is not 1-2% per year, but 2-4%. In Ukraine industrial inflation exceeded 60% in a year, primarily due to an almost threefold increase in energy prices. Therefore, the transfer of prominflation (growth in costs) to consumer inflation will continue,” Alexander Okhrimenko analyzes.

Oleg Pendzin says that the main rise in prices will be at the expense of food products. One reason is the pandemic, the second is the deterioration of weather conditions, which affects the yield. Eggs, which are already “gold” – more than 4 UAH apiece, will continue to rise in price most noticeably, the expert noted. The price can jump up to 5 UAH per egg.

But the reasons for the rise in price are objective: this is an increase in prices for grain and gas, which is used on poultry farms for heating, plus seasonality, in winter chickens lay worse. The cost of meat will rise, the seasonal increase in prices for vegetables and fruits will continue.

The Ukrainian authorities also advise fellow citizens to tighten their belts in the coming year.

“Ukrainians need to prepare for a 10-20% increase in food prices. The reason lies in high inflationary risks in world markets,” says Oleg Ustenko, adviser to the President of Ukraine. “Inflation is not monetary, but commodity, so it will be extremely difficult for the National Bank to influence her.”

To mitigate the price shock, the government is preparing the introduction of free “food stamps” for people with low incomes. Such coupons will not be valid for all products, but only for socially significant.

The conditions for issuing food stamps are still unknown, the timing is also unknown. But experts believe that, first of all, they will be given to those who receive subsidies for utilities or have an income level not higher than the minimum.