(ANSA) – ROME, FEBRUARY 03 – This year the Italian GDP could grow by 3.9%. This is the forecast of the Parliamentary Budget Office (UPB) according to which, after a “very weak” first quarter due to the pandemic resurgence, growth would strengthen from the spring, “taking advantage of the progressive improvement in health conditions”. Within the first half of the year, activity would reach the levels of the end of 2019, the Parliamentary Budget Office still predicts a gradual normalization process for 2023, with a slowdown in growth to + 1.9%, “also due to the less expansive tone of economic policies “.
The forecasts, explains the UPB, assume the complete implementation of the investment programs of the NRP, agreed at the EU level, as well as the full effectiveness of the monetary policy measures of the ECB, taking into account their gradual reabsorption starting from this year. According to the Public Accounts Control Authority, “the set of stimulus measures financed with European funds and the interventions planned with the budget maneuver for 2022 would support GDP by about three percentage points in the three-year period 2021-23”.
The Ubp estimate of GDP this year does not differ much from that of the Monetary Fund which expects Italy to grow by 3.8%. In the October Nadef, the government estimated an increase of 4.7% and recently the Minister of Economy, Daniele Franco, spoke of a growth of more than 4%.