Arnaud Fontanet warns of the risk of “a fourth wave of the same magnitude as the previous ones”

The incidence rate for Covid-19 continues to increase in France under the effect of the Delta variant. If for the time being the increase in contaminations has not yet had an impact on the number of hospitalizations, the health situation is worrying. At the end of the day on Friday, the Elysee Palace announced that Emmanuel Macron would speak on Monday at 8 p.m. “The Delta variant is starting an outbreak in all European countries, including France, with a speed that disconcerts us”, notes at the microphone ofEurope Morning Arnaud Fontanet, epidemiologist at the Institut Pasteur.

This turnaround is all the more brutal “since we have all been surprised by the speed with which the epidemic has been decreasing” since the end of spring, notes our guest. “It remains to be seen whether this increase in cases will be accompanied by an increase in serious cases and therefore hospitalizations”, adds Arnaud Fontanet. “We could end up with a fourth wave of the same magnitude as the previous ones.”

The benefits of vaccination

Two levers, according to him, can still slow down the epidemic recovery: the reinstatement of certain health limitations, which Emmanuel Macron could announce on Monday evening, and the acceleration of the vaccination. “With the vaccination which protects 95% against this new variant, we could end up, in the best of scenarios, with an epidemic of mild cases, and health services under little strain due to a limited number of hospitalizations “, explains our scientist.

Arnaud Fontanet advises in particular to vaccinate his children from 12 years old, “and from now on so that they are protected at the start of the school year”, thus preventing schools from becoming again places of circulation of the virus.