The Variant Delta worries. It now concerns 20% of new contaminations in France and the incidence rate is no longer falling. Scientists are warning of their fears of a resurgence of the epidemic after returning from summer vacation. The models of the Pasteur Institute highlight the possibility of a new peak while the president of the scientific council foresees for his part a fourth wave but “much more nuanced than the first three”.
A more nuanced fourth wave at the start of the school year?
The Institut Pasteur has calculated that by lifting all social restrictions, with 70% of adults vaccinated in those under 60 and 90% beyond, we could still be faced with a peak of 2,500 hospitalizations at the start of the school year. daily, comparable to last fall. These calculations, close to the government’s objectives, implicate the more contagious Delta variant, which will continue to cause severe forms of Covid in adults who have not received their two doses of vaccine.
Professor Jean-François Delfraissy also expects a fourth wave at the start of the school year. More “nuanced”, of course, but which nevertheless risks having consequences on the health system. This peak could be reduced by maintaining control measures such as intensive screening and strengthening barrier measures, which could be targeted on certain populations, estimates the Institut Pasteur.
A fear that persists for the most fragile
Jean-François Delfraissy said he was especially concerned for those over 60, who are still around 20% not to be vaccinated, and people with comorbidities, a third of whom have not received their two doses, in particular those suffering from obesity. He believes that a third dose of vaccine could be considered in the fall for those over 70 years old. A booster shot to stimulate an immune system that has become more fragile with age.
The president of the scientific council is also now in favor of compulsory vaccination for caregivers, without waiting for the start of the school year. Stressing that the Covid-19 is “socially unjust”, Pr Delfraissy also called for the disposal of “vaccination trucks in the cities” and all the “poorly medical” places.
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