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Dollar closes slightly lower, but advances 3.7% in September marked by BCs and election

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Dollar has a volatile day before the elections and closes slightly lower. For the month, however, the coin is up nearly 4% (Image: Shutterstock)

O dollar in sight closed slightly down against the real this Friday (30), quoted at R$ 5.39 for sale, in a trading session of strong volatility since the beginning of business.

The US currency fluctuated between BRL 5.32 and BRL 5.42 throughout the day, It is made of the elections and on a day of technical dispute between investors bought and sold for the formation of the price of the Ptax rate – average of quotations calculated by the Central Bank (BC) -, at the end of the month.

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The bought won the less fierce dispute on the eve of the election, on Sunday.

On the other hand, the dollar futures contract maturing in November closed with a slight increase of 0.2%, at R$ 5.45. Outside, the Dollar Index had a slight decline, above 112.1 points.

End of the month

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The dollar ends September very differently from how it started. Despite opening the month under pressure, going from R$5.10 to R$5.20, the decisions of central banks and the proximity of elections in Brazil led the dollar to over BRL 5.40 – for the first time in two months -, which represents a advance of 3.7% in the month.

It is the second biggest increase since June and the second consecutive month of appreciation of the foreign currency.

BC interventions

Last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed, the US central bank) raised the interest rate by 0.75 percentage point (pp) for the third time in a row, reinforcing fears about rising inflation in the United States.

Here, accustomed to inflationary pressure, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) ended the cycle of hikes in the Selic rate, keeping it at 13.75% per year.

But the surprise came with the Central Bank (BC) intervention in the exchange rate, for the first time since April, with the two auctions known as line – dollar sale with repurchase agreement.

The operator of Commcor Corretora, Cleber Alessie, comments that the main characteristic of the operation is the potential to dilute or combat eventual dysfunctions in the foreign exchange market, especially when the flow ends up being predominantly unilateral.

He adds that the BC’s focus on intervention was not the currency level, as the dollar is strengthened globally and at the highest levels in more than 20 years against its main peers.

According to Alessie, the hypothesis is that the monetary authority acted after having information on the additional outflow of dollars, so that the currency supply in the short term was quite correct, meeting a demand, and not facing the global movement of the dollar.

Election

The election finally took its toll. A few weeks ago, analysts repeated that the dispute was in the exchange rate, regardless of the choice in Jair Bolsonaro (PL) or in Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (EN).

In the last few days, however, the protection movement took hold, which contributed to the soaring of the currency – an appreciation that made the currency closes the week up 2.8% – at the largest weekly percentage change since the beginning of July.

Bolsonaro or Lula? See the scenarios for the dollar after the elections

Monday, post-first shift

The next trading session is the market’s reaction to the results of the elections in first round.

For InvestSmart XP’s allocation and distribution director, André Meirelles, in an eventual victory for Lula on Sunday, the market’s focus will be on PT’s signals for fiscal policy and the names that will compose its economic team.

Today, in the early afternoon, Veja published that members of Lula’s campaign already took for granted the name Henrique Meirelles for the former president’s Ministry of Finance, a portfolio that may return with the PT. This led the dollar to renew successive lows below R$5.33.

“If the spending project shows fiscal responsibility and the economic team is known by the market, Lula’s victory could be beneficial for Brazilian assets”, says the director of InvestSmart XP.

On the other hand, if Bolsonaro is elected in the first round, the scenario should be one of less uncertainty, says Meirelles, since his political project is known by the market and should be a continuation of the last four years – including the maintenance of Paulo Guedes at the helm. in front of the Ministry of Economy.

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Source: Moneytimes

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