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Positivo (POSI3) is at risk of leaving the Ibovespa, say analysts; IRB (IRBR3) is in the crosshairs

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IRB is at risk of leaving Ibovespa, assesses XP (Image: Money Times/Renan Dantas)

A new round of previews of the new portfolio of Ibovespa is about to start. The next rebalancing of the index that is a benchmark on the Brazilian Stock Exchange will take place on January 2, 2023. B3 🇧🇷B3SA3) will feature three previews, with the first scheduled to drop as early as next week, December 1st.

THE XP Investimentos it’s the Itaú BBA shared their expectations for the update. Both institutions project an exit and no entry.

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The stock that is in the eye of the hurricane is the Positive 🇧🇷POSI3🇧🇷 According to XP, the technology company’s share is a candidate with a high probability of leaving the Ibovespa, since the Tradability Index (IN) of the stock exceeded the 90% limit by a wide margin, according to brokerage simulations.

Although XP’s base scenario only considers the exit of Positivo, the brokerage indicates two other stocks that run the risk of being left out of the index as well, depending on the trading of shares until December 29th.

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The first is the eztec 🇧🇷EZTC3), which has the IN below, but close to the 90% limit. The second is the IRB 🇧🇷IRBR3), which runs the risk of being classified as penny stock (share with average price below R$ 1).

“For now, the average value of the paper is BRL 1.07”, highlights XP, based on the price on November 17, 2022, of BRL 0.81).

close to entering

O Itaú BBA believes that the most likely is that there will be no inclusions in the rebalancing. However, it highlights that CBA 🇧🇷CBAV3🇧🇷 Auren 🇧🇷AURE3) and Moved 🇧🇷MOVI3) are close to entering the index.

On the other hand, although it sees Positivo as more likely to be withdrawn in this update, the BBA comments that Eztec, ecorodovias 🇧🇷ECOR3) and CSN Mineração 🇧🇷CMIN3) are close to the exclusion threshold.

If the institutions’ estimates are confirmed – that is, no entry and one exclusion -, the number of stocks on the Ibovespa will drop from 92 in the last rebalancing to 91.

B3 regularly publishes three previews of the new compositions of the indices: the first in the first trading session of the last month of validity of the current portfolio; the second on the trading session following the 15th of the last month of validity of the current portfolio and the third on the penultimate trading session of the current portfolio.

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Source: Moneytimes

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