The elected government of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva it gains body. Now, the markets are waiting anxiously for the choice of the new Minister of Finance.
In addition to tax concerns, with the deficit of up to R$ 198 million, which will have to be negotiated with the Congressthere are other points that investors need to be aware of in the next government Lula: the increase in the tax burden for banks and oil and gas companies.
At the beginning of the year, when the barrel of Petroleum reached US$ 120 and the price of gasoline at R$ 7, the president of Chamber🇧🇷 Arthur Liraeven proposed more taxes for oil companies, which had full cash due to the commodity boom.
“This is a real possibility, not only for banking, but for oil and gas, which are sectors that are generating a lot of cash and have a lot of fat to burn”, says analyst Larissa Quaresma, in an interview with Money Times🇧🇷
In the case of banks, the government itself Jair Bolsonaro even raised CSLL (social contribution on profit) from 20% to 21%. However, the analyst recalls that this did not impact revenues.
“It didn’t even tickle, hardly any difference. And for the government it was a question of billions of reais that makes a lot of difference”, she says.
What to do?
In Quaresma’s view, to understand whether this is enough to set aside bets on the banking sector, it is necessary to understand the size of this change.
The analyst recalls that the sector is defensive, regardless of the government, and remains a good option. In addition, she claims that the sector remains a good choice for dividends.
“They paid the shareholder in 2016, which was the height of the crisis in the country since redemocratization”, he says.
Is it worth buying banks?
In the third trimester, Itaú Unibanco 🇧🇷ITUB4🇧🇷 Bank of Brazil 🇧🇷BBAS3🇧🇷 Santander Brasil 🇧🇷SANB11) and Bradesco 🇧🇷BBDC4) earned BRL 24 billion, up 13% over the same period, according to data from the TradeMap🇧🇷
Despite the increase, the number was inflated, mainly by the BBwhich saw the figure jump 62%, the highest quarterly profit ever recorded in any quarter by a publicly traded Brazilian bank.
“Itaú had a weaker result, but still positive. The yield curve goes up and the market marking is very bad for everyone, so it’s quite challenging”, says Quaresma.
She remembers that while the Itau has a portfolio more exposed to companies and individuals focused on the real estate market, Santander and Bradesco they have a more aggressive portfolio, growing in the credit portfolio, which are the lines where there was the greatest increase in default. “This is where the bomb starts to explode”, he adds.
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I am an author and journalist with a focus on market news. I have worked for a global news website for the past two years, writing articles on a range of topics relating to the stock market. My work has been published in international publications and I have delivered talks at both academic institutions and business conferences around the world.