The risks that come with the new government for the state-owned companies still exist, but the actions of Petrobras 🇧🇷PETR4) and Bank of Brazil 🇧🇷BBAS3) already seem to price them, evaluate analysts.
THE Terra Investimentos points out that, despite the fear of the political interference in companies, both are in a moment of greater stability compared to past decades.
“This causes many investors to see a limited impact if this really happens, allowing them to accept the risk of maintaining their position”, explain Régis Chinchilla and Luis Novaes, from the brokerage analysis team, to the Money Times🇧🇷
Gustavo Gomes, variable income specialist and partner at Acqua Vero Investimentossays that the actions of state-owned companies have been heavily penalized since the definition of the 2022 general elections.
“State-owned companies have already experienced a large capital flight due to the uncertainties that this new government policy has brought. In addition to changing governments, we are entering a government that has a history of increasing public spending and, to finance this public spending, they use the profits of state-owned companies. This has historically happened, ”he recalls.
It is worth remembering that the shares of Petrobras and Banco do Brasil melted in the trading session following the victory of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for his third term as president of the Republic.
Since October 3, Petrobras shares have accumulated a 14% drop, while Banco do Brasil has lost more than 8%.
Gomes believes that the correction in paper prices, which rose sharply in the year, should increase a little more, considering the risks brought with the new Lula government🇧🇷
The Acqua Vero specialist points out, however, that, at the price at which the shares are currently traded, the valuations they look quite attractive.
Petrobras and Banco do Brasil should end the year on a high, considering that most of the correction has already taken place, evaluate market agents.
Chinchilla and Novaes, from Terra, argue that there are other factors besides the political issue that influence more companies like Petrobras, which “have more to benefit from the rising trend of the Petroleum🇧🇷
Analysts claim that companies (Petrobras and Banco do Brasil) should end the year valued because recent results have greater weight than projections about the long-term future.
“For the coming months, companies should not devalue themselves further, having this perspective that the results should be maintained in the short and medium term”, say Chinchilla and Novaes.
Gomes, from Acqua Vero, states that, although there is room for correction, it has been decreasing, “given that the prices of these companies are at a very attractive level, if compared with privatized peers”.
The Acqua Vero specialist recalls that what pushed Petrobras shares up was the rise in oil prices and the announcement of generous dividends.
“This made the company perform well beyond, especially in an election year”, reinforces.
As for Banco do Brasil, the payment of dividends, although lower than that of Petrobras, came in line with what the company had been paying.
“In the case of Banco do Brasil, we saw this premium on paper, due to a penalty in 2021. It suffered a drop in 2021 and, now, in 2022, it has been recovering its price”, completes Gomes.
Attention to the risks
The rich are still to be considered. Terra analysts point out that, if the new government takes decisions that go against the vision of maintaining the current model, it is natural for the market to react negatively.
Chinchilla and Novaes point out that the current model of the companies is beneficial, which is reflected in the results, which tend to continue if there is no sudden change.
“If the new government decides to make changes that better serve its political agenda, which sees state-owned companies as a development agent, the results should become less attractive and investors will price assets that way”, evaluate the analysts.
For 2023, the expectation is that these companies will start timidly on the Stock Exchange, with investors waiting for the government’s next moves.
“We are waiting for the articulations and how the government will act within the companies”, comments Gomes, from Acqua Vero.
In the evaluation of the analyst and co-founder of Investment SchoolRodrigo Cohen, the shares of Petrobras and Bank of Brazil may be penalized in the short term.
“Actions should start to change behavior after ministries are announced and leadership body presidents are named,” says the expert.
“Starting the year is always an open question. It may start well, but then you have to assess the impact of the government’s attitude towards these companies”, he concludes.
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