O Ibovespa (IBOV) closed on a high this Friday (9), the day that the president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva announced the first names to lead ministerial teams in his government.
This Friday was also the elimination of Brazil in the world Cup from 2022🇧🇷 The reference index of the Brazilian Stock Exchange operated with less liquidity due to the game, but held on to appreciation throughout the session, ending with gains of 0.25%, at 107,519.56 points. In the week, the index accumulated losses of 3.93%.
Fernando Haddad was appointed to command the Ministry of Finance in New Lula government🇧🇷 Along with him, four other names also became known: Jose Mucio to the Ministry of Defense; Flavio Dino to the Ministry of Justice; Rui Costa in the Civil House; and Mauro Vieira as Minister of Foreign Affairs.
Haddad was one of the main names quoted by the market for the command of the Treasury portfolio. The Ibovespa was even penalized on the prospect that the former mayor of São Paulo could, in fact, take office.
Contrary to the market’s negative reading of the nomination, the Ibovespa rose today. However, Ricardo Jorge, an investment specialist and partner at Quantzed, believes that Haddad’s appointment has no direct relationship with the market’s performance.
Data from the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) surprised on the upside, with the indicator rising 0.41% in November, compared to the projected median of 0.59%. This ended up relieving the pressure on the interest rate curve and benefiting the Stock Exchange, he explains.
Bruno Monsanto, partner and investment advisor at RJ Investimentos, says that the market “has already fallen asleep digesting Haddad in the economy”.
“His appointment alone does not come as a major shock to the currency and equity markets. On the other hand, long interest rates, which better capture the perception of fiscal risks, included a risk premium on Thursday”, highlights the expert.
According to Monsanto, the announcement that the Economy portfolio will be divided into three ministries (Finance; Planning and Management; and Industry and Commerce) could affect the mood of the market more, for good or for bad.
big doubt
Idean Alves, partner and head of the operations desk at Ação Brasil Investimentos, points out that there is still a great deal of doubt regarding the way in which the Treasury will be conducted.
“The “big flea behind the ear” is knowing the force that will drive the Farm: the technical side of Persio Arida and team, if you are one of the names of the economic team, focusing on public policies aimed at generating jobs, income and growth in Brazil, or the more political bias led by Haddad, with more State in the Economy”, he comments.
Alves recalls that doubts usually add uncertainty, insecurity and lack of predictability, “everything that the financial market does not like”.
Fishing positive aspects in the new minister
Analysts and managers are already starting to raise positive points about Haddad, who was once minister of Education🇧🇷
Edmar de Oliveira, variable income operator at One Investimentos, recalls that Paulo Guedes it was difficult to dialogue with deputies and senators and with other parties precisely because of the lack of political savvy.
“There is a need for you to impersonate a politician at the head of the ministry because you need dialogue with the political class. They speak the same language,” she says.
Matheus Spiess, an analyst at Empiricus Research, recalls that Haddad is a name seen as pragmatic and more Lula than PT. For him, within the possibilities, it is not the worst.
“Who will be the Minister of Finance will be Lula“, he completes.
Positive highlight of the Ibovespa this Friday, the mining and steel sector helped to raise the Ibovespa, with CSN Mineração 🇧🇷CMIN3) firing 10% and CSN 🇧🇷CSNA3) rising 5.18%. THE OK 🇧🇷VOUCH3) advanced 3.33%, in the wake of iron ore.
IRB 🇧🇷IRBR3) lost steam throughout the session, but managed to finish up 2.86%.
Source: Moneytimes
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