Super Wednesday arrives with Selic at 13.75% and US interest rates could rise by 0.25 pp: See what moves Wednesday (01)

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Copom should keep the Selic rate at 13.75%, while the Federal Reserve asks to raise interest rates by 0.25 percentage points. (Image: Agência Brasil)

The Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) announces, after the closure of the local market, the first decision of the year on the Selic and no surprises are expected. The market expectation is that the central bank keep the rate fees by 13.75%.

“Despite a cooling in the levels of inflationthe risk with public spending remains on the radar while the government does not signal any effective effort with the fiscal commitment”, highlights Caio Canez de Castro, partner at GT Capital.

Ricardo Jorge, a specialist in fixed income and a partner at Quantzed, points out that inflation seems to be reaching a turning point, even though there are several doubts, mainly in relation to fuel tax relief. “Overall, price behavior has been more beneficial than expected for a while,” he says.

Fed also decides rates

And today is not just Copom day. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of Federal Reserve also announces the interest rate decision, at 4 pm, on this first Super Wednesday of the year. The forecast is for a further reduction in the rate of increase in US interest rates, this time to 0.25 percentage points.

With that, the expectations are in relation to the speech of the president Jerome Powellat 4:30 pm, which could signal the end of the monetary tightening cycle – or not.

Check the economic agenda for this Wednesday (01)

Time Country Indicator
— Brazil 2nd day of Copom meeting
— USA 2nd day of the FOMC meeting
06h euro zone Manufacturing PMI (January)
06:30 am UK Manufacturing PMI (January)
07h euro zone Consumer Price Index
07h euro zone Unemployment rate (December)
09h Brazil Producer Price Index (December)
10am Brazil Manufacturing PMI (January)
10:15 am USA ADP report
11:45 am USA Manufacturing PMI (January)
12 noon USA JOLTs (December)
4pm USA FOMC interest rate decision
4:30 pm USA Speech by Jerome Powell (Fed)
6:30 pm Brazil Copom interest rate decision

policy in focus

On the political front, parliamentarians return to Brasilia after the year-end break. It’s the Congress He’s already back with a full agenda with the elections for the Board of Directors.

Arthur Lira must go ahead of the Chamber of Deputiesbut the dispute Senate promises to be fierce. Rodrigo Pacheco disputes the presidency of the house with Rogério Marinho – former president’s ally Jair Bolsonaro.

In addition, the Judiciary also returns to work this Wednesday. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva participates in the formal opening session of the Judiciary Year, starting at 10 am.

Throughout the day, Lula also has meetings with ministers Alexandre Padilha (Institutional Relations); Paulo Pimenta (Secom); Rui Costa (Civil Staff) and Waldez Góes (Regional Development).

Source: Moneytimes

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