Next week, the Multiplan (MULT3) opens the season for reporting financial results for the fourth quarter of 2022 for the mallspassing the ruler in the previous year.
Although MULT3 and Iguatemi (IGTI11) have already released operating figures in January, the market wants to know in detail the losses and gains of companies, after previous figures show that the sector continues to “impress”.
For the BTG Pactualmall data is “doing very well” and should perform well, with strong sales ensuring good returns and helping revenue with rents.
Bank analysts point out that Multiplan and Iguatemi showed robust same-store sales (SSS) in the fourth quarter thanks to a good performance in December.
“Malls should again show impressive revenue growth as they have passed on the inflation for rents”, says the bank’s real estate team. However, for BTG, Iguatemi should “steal the spotlight” again, with its portfolio of first-class malls and delivering consistent operating numbers.
Aliansce Sonae is back on the radar
The expectations for Alliances Sonae (ALSO3) It is Syn (SYNE3) are not the most encouraging. However, the numbers should still be good.
THE BTG resumed coverage of ALSO3 with a buy recommendation and target price of BRL 26, which represents a 45% appreciation in relation to the current price, close to BRL 17.90.
The return is due to the merger of the company with BR Mallscreating a new company that will be the largest mall operator in Latin America. Analysts point out that Aliansce Sonae foresees a potential synergy of R$ 210 million per year with the new company, the which also includes R$161 million in Ebitda, with revenue synergies, cost savings and expenses, in addition to R$49 million in interest expenses.
“Although this number has been validated by consultants, we believe that the increase in revenue seems limited and the refinancing of BR Malls’ debt was already in progress”, they comment.
BTG analysts say they expect smaller synergies than the company estimates, “mainly in terms of costs and expenses, taking about three years to capture them”. They point out that ALSO3 is being negotiated with discounts for Multiplan and Iguatemi, which is “little deserved”, considering that the sales and rents of its tenants were slightly weaker.
Malls with good numbers, but target price cut
Despite the numbers of Multiplan and Iguatemi being seen with good eyes by analysts, recently, the Credit Suisse announced the target price cut of the two companies. From MULT3, it went from BRL 29 to BRL 27, while IGTI11 fell from BRL 29 to BRL 23. The recommendation is to buy both.
The reasons, according to the bank, is a valuation discounted, since actions of the two mall managers are about 30% below the historical average over the last five years. The shares are down about 10% since November.
“We believe that the market reaction after the elections was exaggerated, as we see both companies shielded from a potential downturn in consumptiongiven the exposure to high-end consumers”, they comment. Analysts at the foreign bank point out that MULT3 and IGTI11 reduced the level of indebtedness before the turn of the year, with Multiplan reaching the lowest level in 10 years.
“For 2023 and 2024, we expect Multiplan to record operating cash flow of R$1 billion and R$1.1 billion, and R$616 million and R$662 million, respectively, making us comfortable with leverage current,” says Credit Suisse.
The Swiss bank team stresses that persistent inflation and higher interest rates are negative conditions for consumption in general. But he sees the target audience of these companies as resilient consumers throughout these times.
Overall positive result
Still, the head of real estate at XPYgor Altero, observes that Multiplan can be highlighted with record sales performance, helping in the continuity of rent transfers and rental revenue.
“In addition, it should show efficiency gains, leading to growth in the Ebitda margin”, he says. On the other hand, Iguatemi should follow a positive trend with net bad debt and healthy occupancy costs, helping the same store rent (SSR) growth.
Meanwhile, BR Malls is expected to report negative impacts on sales in the fourth quarter amid the lower-than-expected performance in sexta-feira Negra. However, XP expects a consistent result, with net revenue reaching R$ 488 million and an improvement in the Ebitda margin of 3 percentage points (pp) in the quarterly comparison.
Source: Moneytimes
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