The month of May had sharp falls for the contracts of the soy It’s from wheat on the Chicago Stock Exchange (CBOT). The exception was corn, which showed a slight increase in the period.
This is a scenario that favors producers who fatten animals, since these commodities represent a significant part of the costs of the agricultural activity.
| Variation of grains in the CBOT (July Contract) – Safras & Mercado | May | 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| Soy | -8.45% | -13.50% |
| Corn | 1.53% | -10.64% |
| Wheat | -6.23% | -24% |
soy and corn
According to Rafael Silveira, an analyst at Safras & Mercado, the favorable climate for US crops caused contracts to fall throughout the month, especially soybeans.
“All this is a reflection of an expectation of good productivity. So far, we project a full harvest in the US, with around 122 million tons, an increase of 5.5% compared to 21/22, which puts pressure on prices, which are already below US$ 14/bushel on the CBOT” , explains Silveira.
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Thus, the trend for oilseeds follows fall, with the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projecting global supply in excess of 400 million tonnes.
According to Allan Maia, corn analyst at Safras & Mercado, speculation about the weather in the United States continues to be the main factor of concern for the market.
Wheat
According to Victor Lopes, wheat analyst at StoneX, 2023 started with a scenario of uncertainties generated by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in the cereal contract in Chicago, a situation that was cooled as the flow of grains through the Black Sea advanced with new extensions in the agreement signed between the countries.
“The perspective for the next crop released by the USDA brought increased production in important countries in the scenario, such as Argentina and Canada. In addition, the good conditions of the new crop of winter wheat, harvested in the second half of the year in the northern hemisphere, brings the market a prospect of increased supply. These factors, added to the pressure of Russian supply at lower prices in the Black Sea, contribute to the drop in prices around the world”, explains Lopes.
In 2022, Brazil harvested a record harvest, increasing its export volume and gaining space in the world market due to more competitive prices than those of European countries.
“Despite this scenario of falling prices, factors such as the reduction of global inventories for the fourth consecutive year, uncertainties regarding the extension of the Black Sea grain agreement from July and the climatic degradation in some important producing regions may bring volatility to the market over the next harvest”, he concludes.
Source: Moneytimes
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