Decision of the Copon is the main event of the week in Brazil and takes place two days before the release of the HICP November, for which a deceleration in the monthly comparison is expected.
Variant news omicron do coronavirus should continue to guide international markets, to the extent of their possible impacts on global activity, inflation and monetary policy, after the president of the Fed, Jerome Powell, adopted a more hawkish tone when talking about inflationary persistence. data from inflation is featured on the agenda of USA e START of the third quarter in Europe.
Copom, inflation and signals
After BC president, Roberto Campos Neto, maintaining a tone seen as dovish by the market, GDP in the third quarter showing a technical recession and industrial production disappointing, the bets converge towards maintaining the 1.5 pp increase in the Selic rate.
Market will pay attention to BC signals about what lies ahead, while Focus continues to show double-digit Selic at the end of the cycle, in 2022. Some analysts believe that the Copom statement on Wednesday, the 8th, may even signal a slowdown the magnitude of the Selic high next year, but this is not a consensus.
On Friday, IBGE releases the November IPCA, which is expected to decelerate to 1.08%, according to expectations compiled by Bloomberg, from 1.25% in October.
In the annual comparison, the index should go to 10.86%, compared to 10.67% previously. Also on the inflation front, the IGP-DI for November, the 7th, and partial for the month of the IPC-S and IPC-Fipe will be released this week.
Read more: Recession makes room for BC to slow down in 2022
Retail sales data for October will be released on the 8th and the expectation is for a recovery from September’s 1.3% drop to a 1.0% rise, while year-on-year it would be down 5.6%, compared to -5.5% previously. Two days earlier, Anfavea announced the sales, production and export of vehicles for November.
Inflation and GDP abroad
A key indicator of US inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show on the 10th that prices continued to rise rapidly in November. Expectations are 0.7% against 0.9% in the monthly comparison and 6.7% against 6.2% in the annual comparison.
American agenda also brings data on consumer sentiment in Michigan, with prospects for improvement.
China and Germany also release CPI. In the euro zone, the main expectation is for the GDP of the third quarter on the 7th. In Germany, on the 8th, the social democrat Olaf Scholz should become chancellor in place of Angela Merkel, who will end 16 years of government.
On the same day, ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks at the ESRB’s Fifth Annual Conference. In the week, a few countries decide on interest rates, including Australia and Hungary, whose central bank is considered the most hawkish in central Europe.
the omicron wave
The new omicron variant of the coronavirus remains a vector of uncertainty about the direction of the pandemic and its effects on global economies. Covid-19 cases in South Africa nearly quadrupled in four days.
At least five US states reported cases of infection by the new strain. A person who traveled to an anime convention at Manhattan’s Javits Center tested positive for an omicron, and although the event required vaccines and masks, protocols were not always adhered to. Now the city needs to alert 53,000 participants to take the test immediately.
Nubank sets IPO price
Nubank lowered the indicative price range for its US IPO, in light of the recent slump in global tech companies, in a transaction that could value the digital bank at more than $40 billion.
Softbank funds for Latin America are among investors willing to buy at least $1.3 billion of the company’s Class A shares at the offering price, according to a statement. Pricing is scheduled for the 8th.
Source From: Moneytimes