Ibovespa fired at 139,000 points with a possible end of the Altas Cycle in Selic, commodities and the deceleration of inflation in the US (image: istock.com/erhui1979)
THE Ibovespa He managed to touch the 139,000 points, maximum historical. After ‘wavering’ at the last session, when the bags in the United States rose more than 4% with a possible agreement with the Chinathe index disenchanted on Tuesday.
Among the factors that helped Ibov, is the inflation us United Stateswhich came better than expected. This feeds the hope of a cut of interest in the country.
Brazil also helped. THE Copom Minutesdisclosed earlier, it reinforced the expectation that interest will only rise if the scenario deteriorates. On the other hand, it is expected to maintain the higher level for longer.
Currently at 14.75%, the highest rate in two decades, economists have predicted up to 17% at stress peak at the end of last year.
Still favorable scenario for Ibovespa
According to Matheus Amaral, an expert in variable income at Inter, the scenario is still favorable for the Brazilian scholarship. He quotes three triggers:
- First, because she continues to negotiate with a relevant discount on her international peers;
- Second, there is a growing expectation of interest rate cuts – “it is early to say, but the curve has already pricing interest rates”;
- In the external scenario, there are signs of relief in commercial tensions, especially with the reduction of tariffs between US and China.
The house estimates that Ibovespa can reach something close to 140,000 points by the end of the year.
He says this is based on a valuation Also below, at 7.5 times the expected profits for 2025, according to the market consensus.
“Any improvement in the home environment can bring a better valuation to our bag, which can be above this average of the last three years of 7.5x.”
According to him, “it would not be crazy to imagine an Ibov at 150,000 points”, for example, if the perception of risk improved, as this would only be 8x profits.
“However, we are aware of the fiscal risk, which remains a relevant point of attention in the local scenario.”
Sectors that promise the most
Among the sectors that should be favorable from this new ‘lean’ is discretionary consumption.
“In addition, segments such as financial, health, retail and real estate tend to benefit.”
Matheus also cites more leveraged and growth profile companies that also gain traction, as lower interest rates in the future remove pressure from results, while the macro best contributes to consumption.
This Tuesday, the actions of Hapid (HAPV3) led the Ibovespa gains, driven by the first trimester balance (1T15).
The health carrier reported adjusted net profit of R $ 416.4 million in the first quarter of 2025 (1T25), a 15.8% drop compared to the same period last year.
Despite the annual retreat, analysts considered the results positive, especially judicial deposits and the improvement in claim.
The negative tip was led by YDUQS (YDUQ3), with the negative reaction to the numbers of the 1T25.
Educational registered adjusted net profit of R $ 153.7 million Between January and March, a drop of 11.4% Compared to the same period of 2024. For analysts, YDUQS presented mixed results in 1T25, with drop in adjusted net income and ebitda and strong growth of cash generation.
The balance was accompanied by a review in the company’s estimates: Educational cut the projection of profit per action (LPA) for the range between R $ 1.70 to R $ 2.00 in 2025.
Among the heavyweights, Petrobras (Petr3; Petr4) also repercussions the balance of 1T25 and ended the session up almost 2%.
From January to March, net profit reached R $ 35.2 billion, up 48.6% compared to the same period as the previous year. For BTG Pactual, the results were not excellent, but also not disappointing.
During the results conferencing, CEO Magda Chambriard stated that the moment is “austerity” and cost control, to face the fall in oil. In the quarter, the Brent – Type used as a reference by Petrobras – lost US $ 20leaving the house of $ 85 for the current $ 65.
Already OK (Voucher3) also closed up about 2% on the wake of iron ore, still reaction to the US and China agreement.
Source: Moneytimes
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