A stab in the back from Lukashenka: will the Kremlin launch an invasion of Ukraine from Belarus

On Thursday, February 17, the situation on the demarcation line in Donbass deteriorated sharply. In the morning, Ukrainian positions were fired upon by separatists almost 30 times, the shells even hit a kindergarten with children. However, while the attention of the military is focused on the Donbass, in Belarus, 6 km from the Ukrainian border, a pontoon bridge across the Pripyat River was deployed. Should we be afraid of an invasion from the north and how ready are the Armed Forces of Ukraine to repel an attack?

Bridge over Pripyat

American intelligence satellites recorded that a pontoon bridge appeared on the territory of Belarus, which leads to the territory of the Polessky State Radiation and Ecological Reserve – the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone. The crossing over the Pripyat River was built over the past two days. This was reported by the American television channel CNN.

It should be noted that now Belarus is holding joint military exercises with Russia “Union Resolve 2022″however, the territory of the reserve does not appear in the list of areas for exercises.

Given the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine and early statements President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko that in the event of war his country would “in close connection with the Russian Federation”it is quite possible that the Russian-Belarusian troops can attack Ukraine directly from the exercises, and this is why the pontoon bridge was built.

Backstab from Lukashenka

Former Deputy Head of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Igor Romanenko believes that the bridge could be used to invade Ukraine.

“It is likely that the Kremlin is considering the possibility of an invasion of Ukraine from Belarus. The reasons for the attack will be created artificially. This may be a provocation: allegedly Ukraine was the first to attack Belarus, forcing Russia to defend the union state and launch a counteroffensive”explains “Today” Romanenko.

At the same time military expert Oleg Zhdanov I am sure that the invasion by Belarus does not make sense.

“The entry of the land group will have huge problems. Belarusian woodland – impassable for troops, it is a swamp and forest”- Zhdanov tells us.

This is also reported by the American Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

“Russian soldiers and equipment will have to navigate the Pinsk Marshes, also known as the Pripyat Marshes, one of the largest wetlands and forested areas in Europe, stretching over 104,000 square kilometers. This region interfered with the Nazi troops during the operation “Barbarossa” during the German invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941″says the CSIS report.

Military expert, reserve colonel Yakub Voinarovsky adds that the pontoon bridge across the Pripyat can be instantly destroyed by tactical means of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

“The firing range of our artillery located near the Belarusian border is 18 km. This is quite enough to destroy the bridge and eliminate the enemy forces on it.”- He speaks “Today” Voinarovsky.

According to the expert, the bridge could have been built for exercises.

“The fact that it is not on the list of areas for training maneuvers may be a consequence of the mess in the Belarusian and Russian armies. Or it could be another informational sabotage to stir up panic in Ukraine and the West”- says Voinarovsky.

Nevertheless, the exercises in Belarus raise serious concerns in the West.

“There is a deployment of a contingent of 30,000 military personnel, special forces, fighter jets, including Su-35, dual-use missiles “Iskander” and air defense systems S-400″NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said.

The Alliance does not rule out that the buildup of combat potential in Belarus may indicate Russia’s plans to attack Kiev from the north.

Is Ukraine ready to resist the enemy in the event of an invasion?

During the 8 years of the war in the Donbass, the Ukrainian army has become stronger. Today, Ukraine has the second largest army in the region, a new NATO-style command and control system, and modern weapons.

So, thanks to the efforts of the Ministry of Defense and the help of Western partners, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have received:

• Turkish-made strike drones Bayraktar TB2;
• artillery reconnaissance radars;
• portable anti-tank missile launchers “Stugna-P”;
• American anti-tank missile systems FGM-148 Javelin;
• American anti-aircraft missile systems Stinger;
• British NLAW anti-tank grenade launchers.

What the Ukrainian army lacks

The Ukrainian army has rather weak aviation, air defense and navy. This was stated Former NATO Commander-in-Chief, US General Philip Breedlove.

“The ground forces of Ukraine have become much better and more combat-ready, but the Russians will own the air and sea”the general noted in a commentary to NBC News.

The Ukrainian fleet, which was effectively liquidated after the annexation of Crimea in 2014, now consists mainly of Coast Guard boats received from the United States and other Western countries. Ukraine has ordered 4 missile-armed corvettes from Turkey, but the first of them will be delivered only in 2023.

The air defense of Ukraine is mainly provided by systems from the times of the USSR. In December 2021, Ukraine requested the Patriot PAC-3 air defense systems from the United States.

The fact that the air defense is a weak point of the Ukrainian defense, and said Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov.

“We need to create a modern air defense and missile defense system, a powerful fleet and coastal defense. We need combat aircraft. The missile program will require significant resources, it needs to be financed. Because these are strategic advantages for the country”– said the minister, adding that the country needs 230-250 billion hryvnia annually for defense.

Ukrainians will fight for every city and every village

Former Deputy Head of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Igor Romanenko notes that today the Ukrainian army is indeed stronger than in 2014.

“The army is funded many times better. We received significant military assistance from Western partners. “Javelins”, “Stingers”, British grenade launchers, drones. The army can inflict serious damage on the enemy. In addition, in the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, its army will have to face a massive “people’s war”. Terodefense units, partisans. Ukrainians will fight for every city, every village. Russia is threatened with a bloodbath”- He speaks “Today” Romanenko.

Yakub Voinarovsky notes that the army and special services will cause the maximum damage to the enemy.

“Armed Forces of Ukraine, National Guard, border guards and SBU – first of all, they will deal a serious blow to the enemy”says the expert.

Oleg Zhdanov believes that, in addition to the army, territorial defense battalions will also provide significant problems for the Russian aggressors.

“The task of the army is to conduct combat operations at the front. The task of the defense is to help the Armed Forces of Ukraine to hold settlements, and in the event of a retreat of our military units, to form sabotage and reconnaissance detachments and conduct a guerrilla war”Zhdanov says.

The expert also notes that there will no longer be volunteer battalions in the form in which they existed in 2014-2015.

“In fact, members of volunteer battalions are now merging into the defense units”says the expert.

From January 1, 2022 in accordance with the Law of Ukraine “On the foundations of national resistance” Terodefense forces began to unfold in the state. According to Minister Reznikov, the TRO Forces include:

• command;
• 4 regional offices;
• 25 brigades (one in each region and Kiev);
• about 150 battalions (one per district).

“Until the end of February, the TRO units will be staffed by at least 70% throughout the country. The Ministry of Defense will gradually provide the troops with weapons, clothing, means of communication and individual armor protection”Reznikov said.

Previous site “Today” found out how likely the invasion of Ukraine by the army of Belarus and whether Putin can attack us under a false flag.

We also talked about why Putin and Lukashenko need a commonwealth and how it dangerous for Ukraine.