“Time to shoot or talk.” Are negotiations between Zelensky and Putin possible, and who is ready to make concessions?

After Russia recognized the independence of the so-called “LPR” and “DPR”, the situation in the Donbass escalated sharply: the number of attacks on the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine increased and the threat of a full-scale invasion of the Russian army into Ukraine loomed.

How likely are direct negotiations between the presidents of Ukraine and Russia, is Zelensky ready for negotiations, will Putin agree to a meeting, and which of the presidents will make concessions? The Segodnya portal deals with all these issues.

Recognition of “LDNR” and ultimatum to Ukraine

February 21 Russian President Vladimir Putin signed decrees recognizing the independence of the so-called “LPR” and “DPR”, as well as agreements with the “republics” on friendship and mutual assistance, including military assistance. The President of the Russian Federation stressed that, according to the “constitutions” of the LPR and the “DPR”, the borders of the “republics” are the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, some of which remain under the control of Kiev.

Thus, the master of the Kremlin made it clear that military assistance to “protect the territorial integrity of the LDNR” could, in fact, mean an invasion of Ukraine and the military seizure of the entire territory of these regions. Ukrainian cities, including Odessa and Kiev.

United States Permanent Representative to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield stated that Putin wants to return to the Russian Federation all the territories of the Russian Empire.

“The same Russian Empire that existed before the Soviet Union, more than 100 years ago”she said.

Meanwhile, about 150,000 soldiers of the Russian army are concentrated on the border with Ukraine, and Vladimir Putin evasively answers journalists’ questions: “How far are Russian troops ready to go?”

“It is impossible to predict specific possible actions, it depends on the situation. I did not say that our troops will go to the Donbass immediately after our meeting with you”– Putin said, as if hinting that he is waiting for the reaction of the Ukrainian authorities to the aggravation of the situation.

And then the President of Russia issues an ultimatum to Ukraine with a number of demands:

• recognize the results of the “referenudum” in Sevastopol and Crimea;
• Ukraine should not join NATO. The Kiev authorities themselves must refuse to join;
• solve the problem of Donbass through negotiations with terrorists;
• demilitarize Ukraine.

How did they react in Ukraine

Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmygalrefused Putin’s demands.

“It’s impossible for an independent, sovereign Ukraine”– said the head of government.

He also stressed that the demands voiced by the President of the Russian Federation regarding not joining NATO and recognizing Crimea as Russian do not coincide with the decisions made by the Ukrainian people.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba described possible scenarios for further actions in the conflict with Russia. According to him, Kiev has two plans.

“Plan A” is to use “all diplomatic methods to contain Russia and prevent further escalation.” If this scenario does not work, Ukraine will engage “Plan B” – “fight for every inch of its land, every city and every village.” “Fight until we win, of course”– Kuleba said after negotiations with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, which took place yesterday, February 22.

What did the West decide

By the way, Anthony Blinken himself abandoned the planned negotiations with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The White House reported that President Joe Biden does not plan to meet with Vladimir Putin. Also, the United States made it clear that in the event of war they would not send their military to Ukraine, but would introduce a number of crushing sanctions against the Russian Federation, the first of which had already hit Russia on February 22. In addition to the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union began to impose sanctions.

Probably, by refusing to negotiate with Russia, the United States makes it clear that America is ready to help and support Ukraine, but it is Kiev that needs to negotiate with Moscow.

“While the diplomats are talking, the guns are silent”

Political scientist Alexei Yakubin believes that Zelensky’s talks with Putin could give the parties to the conflict time to reflect and make the right decision to avoid tragic consequences.

“The best option would be lengthy negotiations. While the diplomats are talking, the guns are silent,” Yakubin told Segodnya.

At the same time, the political scientist doubts that Zelensky-Putin talks will take place in the near future, but does not exclude that the leaders of the countries can talk in a different format.

“At the Munich Conference, Zelensky proposed to convene the guarantors of Ukraine’s security – the countries participating in the Budapest Memorandum of 1994. This summit involves the participation of the President of the Russian Federation. Within its framework, Zelensky’s negotiations with Putin could take place,” says Yakubin.

The expert also notes that soon Putin is scheduled to meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

“Given that Erdogan volunteered to mediate between Ukraine and Russia, it is likely that the meeting will discuss the Ukrainian issue and Erdogan may try to arrange direct negotiations between Putin and Zelensky,” Yakubin says.

Is Ukraine ready to make concessions?

According to Yakubin, part of the demands put forward by Russia can become a topic for discussion, and this is exactly what Putin is waiting for, rattling weapons at the border.

“Shmyhal said that the requirement not to join NATO cannot be fulfilled. But if we recall Zelensky’s speeches in Munich, the answer to this question does not look so unambiguous. After all, objectively, today the issue of Ukraine’s entry into NATO is not on the agenda. And in NATO itself they tell us that they will not be accepted into the Alliance in the next 10 years at least. Therefore, Zelensky noted that the prospect of joining is possible in the future, but Ukraine needs security guarantees today. I think the issue of not joining NATO in the near future and the demand for demilitarization “Kyiv, theoretically, can discuss with Moscow, but to recognize Crimea as Russian – not a single Ukrainian president will agree to this,” Yakubin is sure.

Is Russia Ready for Concessions and Does Putin Need Negotiations?

Political scientist Vadim Karasev believes that Russia categorically does not agree to retreat from its position and therefore negotiations between Zelensky and Putin will not take place in the near future.

“Putin does not need negotiations. His only goal is the complete capitulation of Ukraine and forcing it to negotiate with the “LPR” and “DPR” as separate states. Under such conditions, a meeting with the President of the Russian Federation does not make sense for Zelensky,” Karasev explains to us.

In his opinion, Ukraine should not hope for negotiations, but it is necessary to strengthen the army and strengthen alliances with Western partners in order to hold the line of demarcation in Donbas during the increasing escalation.

“But any escalation sooner or later ends with negotiations,” Aleksey Yakubin is still sure.

As the Segodnya website reported, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry admits that an intensified military escalation may begin in the coming days.

We also informed that Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba said that Russia will not be able to defeat Ukraine with brute force and will resort to other methods. For example, it will use provocations, sow panic, destroy the economy of our state.

At the same time, US President Joe Biden warned that Russia was ready to launch an invasion within the next few days and could attack Kiev.