The parliamentary elections in Hungary decide on European cohesion

For weeks, the prime minister has been present on posters on country roads and on advertising banners in the Budapest metro. Hungary is, as it were, papered with pictures of Viktor Orbán and the keywords peace and security, which he promises the electorate if the majority vote for him this Sunday. And the chances of that happening are good.

While election advertising was posted in Hungary – especially for the incumbent – ​​Russia’s President Vladimir Putin started a war in neighboring Ukraine, which Orbán hardly seems to mind. Little has changed in his notoriously anti-European and pro-Russian stance.

In Orbán, with his promise of non-interference, Putin has an ally who follows him economically and politically. The Hungarian is pursuing a dual strategy between Brussels and Moscow.

Although he supports the EU sanctions, he does not distance himself from Putin. Should he be confirmed in office as expected, he should also see himself confirmed in this attitude.

After all, it has already driven a wedge into the otherwise stable right-wing populist Warsaw-Budapest axis. Orbán also did not join when the heads of government of Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Poland traveled to Kyiv. In exchange, the defense ministers of the three countries did not come to Hungary, where a meeting of the Visegrád countries was to be held this week.

Perhaps last chance to vote Orbán out of office

Orbán is also undeterred by his vision of “illiberal democracy”, based on Russia or Turkey. whose political systems he praises. In the past twelve years he has curtailed the independence of the judiciary, reformed the right to vote in his favor, and restricted freedom of the press and academics.

This election could be the last in which there is even a chance of Orbán being voted out. However, hopes that the voters will recognize this and rethink it will hardly be fulfilled. Many want to give Orbán his fourth consecutive legislature. They have little fault with the political course, and many are better off economically than they were twelve years ago.

This also applies to the large Hungarian minority in Ukraine. Many of them fled to Hungary before the war and are welcomed with open arms. Hungarians in neighboring countries are considered sworn Orbán fans – paradoxically, even now that Orbán is standing by the man who made their flight necessary in the first place.

The challenger is considered by many to be too inexperienced

Until the war, this time it looked as if the opposition could pose a threat to Orbán. Six parties have joined forces and support a common top candidate: Péter Márki-Zay, mayor of a small town from southern Hungary and a much inexperienced politician as Orbán – especially on the international stage.

Many Hungarians who have never voted for the opposition could vote again for Orbán this Sunday because other issues, such as the fight against corrupt Fidesz politicians, have become insignificant since the war.

His re-election would be a receipt for the EU

To a certain extent, Orbán’s re-election can also be read as a acknowledgment for the EU: for the timidity with which it has dealt with the progressively authoritarian symptoms of Hungarian politics.

Infringement proceedings have been initiated time and again, or it has been established that the rule of law is in danger, but the population has not noticed any real consequences. And so Orbán’s course is likely to radicalize after the election.

That could encourage other right-wing populist politicians in Europe. France is voting next Sunday, and the right-wing Marine Le Pen is promised a good chance of reaching the second ballot. Then many in the EU will hope that the rule that Orbán considers bad luck will bring luck to President Emmanuel Macron and thus to Europe’s democracies: that incumbent politicians are rarely voted out in times of war.