Sometimes one can be thankful for the dialectic inherent in democratic elections. In the US, citizens voted less willingly than many had feared. Inflation and worries about the wallet were apparently not the overriding motive that the Republicans benefited from.
The surprise is now bringing movement to the 2024 presidential race. The USA has the chance to free itself from the paralyzing dichotomy that has characterized the country recently: will the 2024 election see a repetition of the duel between Donald Trump and Joe Biden?
On the one hand, this expectation had caused boredom. Does the US, despite having a younger population and often more dynamic politics than those in Europe, have nothing more attractive on offer than the two dinosaurs?
Ron DeSantis disputes Trump’s role as favorite
On the other hand, the prospect of a new edition led to questionable exaggerations: It is about a fight between good and evil and about the survival of American democracy. The argument about what practical policies the country needs faded.
The rematch has become somewhat less likely due to the outcome of the congressional elections. Even before Trump declared his renewed candidacy, Florida’s governor Ron De Santis contested his role as the favorite among the conservatives with a triumphant victory.
If Trump is no longer seen as inevitable by Republicans, that will also put pressure on Democrats. Do you want to start the race in 2024 with the then 82-year-old Biden or with a younger person?
Another dialectic comes into play here. The 2024 race is now more open than before, but in domestic politics the signs are pointing to a deadlock. Biden has lost the double majority in both chambers of parliament needed for legislation.
In the future, the Republicans will control the House of Representatives and thus the budget. The president does not immediately become a “lame duck”. But in the future he will only be able to act relatively freely in foreign policy. The United States will probably have to wait for the decision on who controls the Senate. There, too, dialectics are at work. On the one hand, it would be a gift for Biden’s Democrats if they retained control. The appointment of high officials, from members of the government to judges, is only possible with the consent of the Senate.
Biden managed to break the price surge ahead of Election Day
On the other hand, Republicans would be under pressure to deliver what they campaigned for if they had a majority in both houses of Congress. They are conveniently spared that if they only dominate the House but not the Senate. The citizens then spread the blame for the blockade on both parties.
But what saved the Democrats from the feared “red wave”? There is probably not one monocausal reason for the result. Several factors worked together. Biden was able to break the price surge, for example when filling up, before election day. Democrats had fielded moderate candidates against Trump supporters in crucial races.
All in all, this means that it is worthwhile not to respond to right-wing identity politics with left-wing identity politics, but to rely on the political center and practical solutions for urgent everyday concerns.
The pattern had previously emerged in elections in Europe. In Sweden and Italy, warning that democracy and the rule of law would collapse if the right-wing camp won did little to help centre-left forces. In Denmark, a social democracy that stands at the center of society, not on the left, has been able to assert itself.
In ideological struggles about gender issues, dealing with sexual minorities, critical racism theory or a “defunding” of the police, right-wing populists find it easier to mobilize approval than progressives. Biden’s Democrats took that to heart. This is another reason why America is becoming exciting again.
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Source: Tagesspiegel
I am an author and journalist with a focus on market news. I have worked for a global news website for the past two years, writing articles on a range of topics relating to the stock market. My work has been published in international publications and I have delivered talks at both academic institutions and business conferences around the world.
