Lots of expenses, lots of doubts: so far, the climate conference has been expensive above all

There must have been at least one reason to celebrate at the World Climate Conference – but that was because the outrageous prices for hospitality for the COP27 guests were reduced by 50 percent. Until then, the sandwiches at the conference site in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, had cost a good 15 euros.

With regard to the climate negotiations, on the other hand, no comparable successes have been achieved so far. Some modest financial commitments were made, an old methane promise reaffirmed. Germany is doubling its contribution to international forest protection by one billion euros.

Even with the much-awaited appearance of US President Joe Biden, the balance was poor: 500 million euros went to Egypt so that the country could expand its renewable energies. Germany is involved with 250 million euros. But millions tend to fall into the “peanuts” category at world climate conferences.

One step back. What should actually be negotiated at this year’s COP? It is about the implementation of the three central pillars of the Paris Climate Agreement negotiated in 2015: greenhouse gas reduction, climate change adaptation and the creation of a sustainable financial system.

In the former, the states negotiate how they want to meet the 1.5 degree target. Since all climate efforts are voluntary, it is hardly surprising that they are far from enough and the world is heading for 2.8 degrees of warming. A work program is now intended to ensure that the international community is on the right track by 2030. But so far it has not even been decided how the work program should be structured.

A coalition of emerging countries like China and Saudi Arabia would like to end the annoying program next year and keep it as blurred as possible. Western countries want a fixed framework by 2030.

But as long as this is not certain, one continues to hover on the meta level. Because if not every process is defined down to the smallest detail, the almost 200 states cannot agree, let alone commit to something.

How big is the need for relief measures? Quite large

This also applies to point two, climate change adaptation. Here, too, nothing is promised in Sharm El Sheikh, but first of all it is explained how great the need for relief measures actually is. The United Nations Environment Program believes that is quite large: by the end of the decade, the damage caused by climate change in the countries of the Global South will amount to between 290 billion and 580 billion dollars.

Therefore, after 2025, twice as much money should flow into adaptation as before, but where that will come from is an open question. China is said to come on board the paying countries, but the country refuses, citing its status as an emerging economy.

That leaves the subject of finance, the biggest pebble in the COP mechanism. The item “sustainable financial system” did not even make it onto the COP agenda. The main argument is therefore about compensation for damage and losses in countries hit by climate change.

They demand their own financial pot. For representatives of human rights organizations, whether this COP will be a success depends on this question. If there is no commitment to a special fund, the world climate conference will be a total flop, they say.

But the industrialized countries are afraid of having to pay for every future natural disaster. Germany dared to take the first step and presented the “Global Shield”, a kind of elementary insurance for poor regions. The Federal Republic pays in 170 million euros.

That’s far from enough, but it’s a start – or in the words of Secretary of State Jennifer Morgan: “We’re reaching for the stars, but keeping our feet on the ground.”

It is unlikely, but not impossible, that the industrialized nations in Sharm El Sheikh will make a commitment to compensate for the climate damage they have caused. That would be a breakthrough.

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