There’s been so much bad news this year. So much suffering, so many dead, an impending nuclear war. And a few weeks ago, the G20 summit was still considered a summit that could manifest the division of the world. But host Indonesia has now shown that there is another way.
Ukraine’s struggle for survival provided the template for Russia’s ever-growing isolation. And in a supporting role, Chancellor Olaf Scholz also showed some critics that his course could have been the right one. First of all, Bali sends out the important signal that there can be a turn for the better.
The summit communiqué with a majority condemnation of the Russian war in Ukraine and the rejection of the use of nuclear weapons in the conflict was approved by the heads of state and government on Wednesday.
Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo and his team have used clever diplomacy to build a bridge between China and India, so that while they do not have to condemn Russia’s war, they also do not have to block the harsh words of most of the other G20 countries. After the summit, Indonesia will remain a player that will gain in importance.
How to deal with Russia’s new escalation?
But then on the second day of the summit came the news of the rocket impact in Poland, which showed that everything remained unpredictable – this event has not yet been clarified. However, the wave of Russian rockets aimed at Ukraine following the events in Bali should also make it clear to Russia’s existing partners, such as India and China, that simply not blocking is perhaps not enough, and that Russia must be isolated even more.
Even before the G7 summit in Elmau, Chancellor Scholz recognized that in a changing world, in which many states no longer simply want to side with one side or the other and the West is becoming weaker, Germany is also becoming more concerned with the countries of the global South has to take care of. From Asia to Africa to South America. He and his traffic light coalition have to keep at it, these bridges to the states that are gaining influence must be strengthened. Also to push back the Russian influence on these states.
Debunking Russian narratives is worth it
Critics of his visit to China, such as Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, must also recognize that the timing of the trip was perhaps not so bad after all, in order to prepare what is perhaps the most important decision in Bali: the G20 group declared that the use or the threat of the use of nuclear weapons was involved inadmissible.
However, the fact that Russia is swallowing this is not a sign of too much relaxation. Vladimir Putin and his power apparatus remain unpredictable, especially when they feel cornered.
Only a cool head helps, it’s good that the other G20 countries, especially the western members, arranged emergency meetings in Bali after the rocket hit the Polish border with two dead. And it fits the picture that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, as Putin’s representative in Bali, avoids uncomfortable questions about the new wave of attacks. He left the day before. That actually says it all.
China is also not a safe cantonist, but has made some moves in terms of more warnings to Moscow. Bali gives some hope. And the Chancellor’s foreign policy tactics have worked, at least for the time being.
Despite the fragility of global politics, the summit shows that the news of the death of diplomacy is perhaps a bit premature, and that constantly explaining one’s own position as to why sanctions were imposed is worth debunking the Russian narrative. Despite all the problems, the agreement organized by Turkey and the UN on the export of Ukrainian grain across the Black Sea was a great step forward and a success – it must be continued.
For German politics, the motto is: remain pragmatic, pursue realpolitik, no matter how painful it may be. Because it is the difficult Gulf States like Qatar and Saudi Arabia that are needed to solve the energy problems. And it is the authoritarian and increasingly aggressive China that remains fundamentally important for trade and for solving global climate issues. The biggest problem is and will remain Russia.
More than ever on the world stage, Moscow has been made to realize that it is increasingly isolated. Pressure on President Vladimir Putin is mounting inside and outside his country.
But so far there is no sign that Putin is so weakened that he could withdraw his troops to the pre-February 24 borders, and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who is sidelined in Bali, has made it clear that there will be no backing down.
The momentum is there, but the situation remains bad. Arms shipments to Ukraine must continue, as must help to restore energy infrastructure. More anti-aircraft defenses are needed urgently and quickly. And NATO is well advised to continue to act as cautiously as it did after the incident in Poland: first investigate, then act.
But it also needs clever, non-public diplomacy, for example from the USA, but also with the help of states that recognize Russia, like Ukraine, as a mediator. The G20 do not see it as their duty to mediate an end to the war, and the format is not suitable for that either. But should a window open towards a way out of the war situation, should the pressure on Russia and the costs become too great, Bali would have a share in it.
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Source: Tagesspiegel
I work as a news website author and mostly cover the opinion section. I have been writing since I was a teenager, and have always enjoyed telling stories. I studied journalism at university and loved every minute of it. After graduating, I decided to move to London and take up a position with a Global Happenings. It has been an incredible experience, learning about all sorts of different cultures and meeting some amazing people. My goal is to continue learning and growing in my career so that I can provide readers with the best possible content.
