Emmanuel Macron, four more years?

All that for this. On the battlefield of pensions, Emmanuel Macron is this conqueror who only obtained victory at the cost of immeasurable losses. Pointed opinion, traumatized National Assembly and record unpopularity… Less than a year after his re-election to the Elysée, his power emerged bloodless from the social protest (still in progress!) and from a parliamentary raid which turned into a fiasco.

Adopted by forced march, without having been put to the vote in the Assembly (article 49.3 obliges), the “mother of reforms” did not receive the democratic anointing. Badly conceived, badly sold, here it is suspended for consideration by the Constitutional Council. From concessions to corrections, the device has become indecipherable. Even ineffective in absorbing future deficits or averting “financial risks” invoked by the president justifying his final thrust.

After passing nine votes for censorship, Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne – let go by a squad of LR deputies who preferred to satisfy their constituents than their party – seems very diminished. At the time of the fateful motion, the Macronist deputies, disgusted, hardly supported this head of government who came from the social democratic left to bring about, in pain, a right-wing reform… without obtaining the decisive reinforcement of the right. Faced with such a mess, the presidential camp sank into depression. How to last four more years?

By constraining Parliament, Emmanuel Macron has only destroyed the advantages granted to him by the Constitution of the Ve Republic. On paper, he can claim legality. But its legitimacy is more contested than ever. What happened to his commitment to “to govern differently” pronounced on the evening of the second round of the presidential election? Considered by a majority of our fellow citizens as the one who was successively elected ” break “ Then ” by default “ against Marine Le Pen, he crystallized popular resentment. A majority of working people are turning their backs on it. Its social base is withering.

No compromise, no coalition is possible

To defer to the sovereign people, the President could dissolve the Assembly. But he does not even think about it: the Macronist deputies, already under police protection, would be the first expiatory victims of the crisis. And who to take over? The traditional government parties – PS and LR – do not stop sinking. No alternative majority is emerging. Public opinion, like national representation, is split into three divergent currents: enemy third parties. Macronist liberals, anti-capitalists of the New People's Ecological and Social Union (Nupes) and identitarians of the National Rally (RN) excommunicate each other. No compromise, no arrangement, no coalition is possible. In the Hemicycle, the debate turns into hustle and bustle.

Emmanuel Macron excludes for the time being a change of Prime Minister. What's the point ? After stepping over the Assembly, none of his projects, starting with the immigration law or the reform of institutions, seems able to rally a majority. When it is not the contribution of the line, it is the reformist left which will be lacking. And nothing indicates that the convening of a social conference on the employment of seniors, the four-day week or the universal time savings account will bring the unions back to the negotiating table.

Already the presidential election of 2027 "without Macron » haunts the spirits. On the right, the ambitions of Xavier Bertrand or Laurent Wauquiez partly explain the defection of parliamentarians who said no to retirement at 64. It was a question for these presidential candidates and their associates of the Palais-Bourbon above all not to appear responsible for such a turn of the screw. Dominating the Nupes, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, he did everything to block the parliamentary debate and regain control of the social movement by promising the chimera of a return to retirement at 60 years old. Even if it means leaving, once again, Marine Le Pen to assert herself as a plausible alternative to declining macronism. « When I'm elected... », she says. The regime crisis is before us.

Source : Nouvelobs

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